We recently talked about that. Many nintendo fans claimed that the wii would reach soon the 50%. I don't think it will, never. See next post (sorry can't make paragraphs in the initial post Oo)

If Nintendo are selling more than the other two combined weekly, then it is inevitable. What will cause this situation to change?

@Demotruk

It is some weeks, but overall in the last few weeks it has dropped half a percent or so. It is 50/50 in my opinion, to whether it will hit 50% this year

been corrected. i will be surprised if it doesnt hit 50%

It has had 53% market share since Q4 08 started.

Do you expect the Wii to sell less, or the Ps3/X360 to sell more?

- High popular games coming to HD console: RE5, SFIV, KZ2, Infamous, Halo wars, FFXIII demo and yakuza, just to name a few. No wii game could match that.

- PS3 will increase its sales in japan: 2008's been a low year for the PS3, 2009 should be much better. Yakuza 3, FFXIII and GT5 will sell tons of consoles.

- Price: wii has always been afordable, a price cut wouldn't have a big impact. The PS3 and the 360 Elite, on the other hand, could get a big boost if there were a price cut, those consoles/sku are still expensive.

- No zelda, mario or metroid this year: last year wiifit, SSMB and MK gave the console a huge boost. There's still no zelda/mario/metroid game announced for this year.

- Economic crisis: yes, once again, THE crisis! Will probably hit more the wii than the other two.

My prediction: Wii will never reach the 50% mark, could even be below 40% by the end of this year.

It was adjusted downwards, but its actual percentage has been growing the entire time.

It outsold both competitors combined two weeks ago by, what, 100k? If it's behind by 2.3 million or so, and keeps outselling them according to that pace (which may grow considerably larger), it would reach 50% by July.

@ thanny - that was a combination of adjustments from the Christmas period (where the Wii still sold many more consoles than PS360) and January being the worst month for the Wii, due to supply constraints.

Wii should be able to hit 54% by Dec 31

I'm not going to address the rest of your post, since it's an adaptation of old arguments about why Sony will win the war, but I am very, very willing to make a bet with you concerning this point.

ahh okay, thanks for that. i obviously wasnt paying attention.

explain how the cheapest console will be the hardest hit by crisis tremble? doesnt seem logical to me.

No it'll get over 50% reasonably soon..

Last year it's market share seemed to drop around january as well, don't know if it was because of supply limits or adjustments but it'll keep chugging along to a nice 50% slice of the market before the middle of the year