I would take the SCEE President's word for it and say that no the hardware is not profitable now but they are profitable on software.

http://www.thebitbag.com/2008/12/19/no-price-cut-for-ps3-anytime-soon-at-least-in-europe/

Our target this year is to break even, not on a cumulative basis, but on an operating business. Our point of view from the 100 markets we work in, we have PS2 which we’re making a profit on, PSP where we also make a profit, and PS3 where, if we just look at it in Euro terms, we are in a profit on software even though we still make a loss on hardware. It’s likely we will get into profit in Europe this year. So SCEE is a solid, safe pair of hands for SCE.

Hardware and software would be a "no" too, considering SCE only had $4 million in profit (which is nothing). Unless you think PS2 and PSP aren't profitable, which I find very hard to believe.

As for when hardware will be profitable, here it is straight from the horse's mouth:

Probab,y not based on their last quartely results.

Sony posted a $4 million profit from october-december 08.

Take away PS2 and PSP profits and your probably left with PS3 in the red.

If you think about it, it's possible the PS3 will never pull significant profit quarter-to-quarter, let alone recoup its investment.

By the time it's profitable enough to allow for a price cut, that price cut will have been long overdue so they won't be able to postpone it (heck many people are saying it's long overdue now). With a price cut they'll go back to losing a bit of money or breaking even. Rinse lather repeat. Some products just aren't successful enough to be profitable.

If the yen weakens a lot it's possible they start pulling consistent profit though. That would be the best thing that could happen to SCE (along with Nintendo).