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Forums - Sales Discussion - xbox 360 dead as a dodo

stof on 05 March 2007

windbane said: stof said: And yes, Halo 3 will sell a lot of systems, as it's undoubtably going to be the most anticipated game of this gen. Just looking at the US, all 3 PS2 GTAs sold more than Halo 2. So did mario 64 but I'm not sure if that counts bundles with the console. I'd say GTA IV is more anticipated. Looking at the world...ugh...too many. Final fantasy games (actually, only VII and X, which you'll notice are the first released on their respective consoles...interesting, eh?), pokeman, 2 mario kart games, of course a ton of other mario games, and lastly, a sony franchise, EVERY SINGLE gran turismo game sold more worldwide than Halo 2. I'd say there are quite a few more anticipated games than Halo 3. Again, I think a lot of people that will buy halo 3 already have the 360 knowing they would want it, but we'll see I guess. I think Microsoft will wait until after the halo 3 sales die down a little to drop the price of the 360, too.
Ok, I was a little broad with that statement. Let me throw in some clarifyers. First off, any mention of something X-box automatically excludes Japan. Take my statement to aim at NA, and maybe Europe as well. I should also add in exclusive title. Yes, GTA is probably more sought after, but it is going to be on two platforms. So my new statement goes like this "In terms of the console war, in NA and Europe, I think Halo 3 will be the most important game of this year. Maybe even this gen."



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

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Erik Aston on 05 March 2007

stof said: Ok, I was a little broad with that statement. Let me throw in some clarifyers. First off, any mention of something X-box automatically excludes Japan. Take my statement to aim at NA, and maybe Europe as well. I should also add in exclusive title. Yes, GTA is probably more sought after, but it is going to be on two platforms. So my new statement goes like this "In terms of the console war, in NA and Europe, I think Halo 3 will be the most important game of this year. Maybe even this gen."
I think its pretty clear, that no matter what happens from here on out, Wii Sports is the most important game of the generation, in every territory. Halo 3 may be the most important game of 2007, but thats about as far as it goes, methinks. Even then, GTA4 has a good chance to sell more than Halo 3 on 360 alone if it has a large install base lead in the West, and Sunshine was the first (and giving the last million to NSMB, still the only) main series Mario game to miss 10 million sold. So there are other mega franchises which could do Halo 3 type numbers this year. Halo 3 may have the biggest single-console launch, but it might do 50% of its eventual total in one week, too.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

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mrstickball on 05 March 2007

Erik - It's doubtful that even GTAIV would outsell Halo 3 in the US/Europe on the 360 alone. Worldwide including sales from the 360 + PS3, yes, but not just on 360. Halo 2 sold 6m units in the US alone on the 360. That's 1 out of every 2.5 (roughly) Xbox owners in the US that own a copy. GTAIII through SA sold less than 2m on the 360. Not saying that GTAIV won't improve hugely, but Halo 3 is all but guarenteed similar results in the US, if not more. I'm sticking my neck out but: US Sales - Halo 3 - 8.0m units lifetime sales GTAIV - 6.0m units lifetime sales Now, I DO believe that GTAIV will do more to propell the 360 to a broader market than Halo3 will, as it helps embolden the 360 market into more casual/mainstream markets as opposed to Halo 3's hardcore shooter market. I dont think there's one major generation defining title. Wii Sports is the Wii-defining title, but I don't think it'll be the generation's defining title (as was GTAIII-SA were last gen in the west markets) Each system has it's uber-sellers: Halo 3 - 360 FFXIII - PS3 Wii Sports - Wii But just like the market is going to be so severely fragmented this generation, there won't be a true winner. Maybe Wii Sports 2 on the Wii 2, however.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

harris1123 on 05 March 2007

windbane said: stof said: And yes, Halo 3 will sell a lot of systems, as it's undoubtably going to be the most anticipated game of this gen. Just looking at the US, all 3 PS2 GTAs sold more than Halo 2. So did mario 64 but I'm not sure if that counts bundles with the console. I'd say GTA IV is more anticipated. Looking at the world...ugh...too many. Final fantasy games (actually, only VII and X, which you'll notice are the first released on their respective consoles...interesting, eh?), pokeman, 2 mario kart games, of course a ton of other mario games, and lastly, a sony franchise, EVERY SINGLE gran turismo game sold more worldwide than Halo 2. I'd say there are quite a few more anticipated games than Halo 3. Again, I think a lot of people that will buy halo 3 already have the 360 knowing they would want it, but we'll see I guess. I think Microsoft will wait until after the halo 3 sales die down a little to drop the price of the 360, too.
I agree with a lot of the points you make here, but I think that the power of a franchise is being slightly overlooked. All of the games that you mentioned are all great games, but they are also fairly far along within their respective franchises. At the time that Halo was released it was a completely new game on a new console. Halo 2 benefited due to the fan base created by the first game and the trend will continue. I'd say that Halo 3 is highly anticipated, and it could easily rival these franchises that have been around for years. That is a feat in itself.



Death2009 on 05 March 2007

windbane said: death2009: this thread is supposed to be about the 360. comparing 1 system to the 360 makes sense, but the other 2 consoles compared with huge charts? not cool. btw, the wii is not competition for the ps3 and 360, so just stop comparing them. third party guys will develop games for both systems because they are different. there are SO MANY games that will not be coming out on the wii it's ridiculous. GTA IV, halo 3, FF 13, MGS, etc. The wii will get all the games that the other 2 consoles don't get. The battle is between the PS3 and the 360, and a lot of people (including myself) will choose between those 2 and then get a Wii. The battle for the Wii is with itself. You are being a little short-sighted by calling the US a 2-horse race and not including the ps3, too.
I was trying to prove to Kwaad that the PS3 is getting slapped in america by both systems and in Japan by the wii. He called it fanboyish and I proved it to be correct. The wii is competing with the 360 and ps3, they are all consoles and all going out after a huge market and I called the US a 2 horse race because thats what it is right now, the ps3 is getting blown out of the water.



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Death2009 on 05 March 2007

mrstickball said: Erik - It's doubtful that even GTAIV would outsell Halo 3 in the US/Europe on the 360 alone. Worldwide including sales from the 360 + PS3, yes, but not just on 360. Halo 2 sold 6m units in the US alone on the 360. That's 1 out of every 2.5 (roughly) Xbox owners in the US that own a copy. GTAIII through SA sold less than 2m on the 360. Not saying that GTAIV won't improve hugely, but Halo 3 is all but guarenteed similar results in the US, if not more. I'm sticking my neck out but: US Sales - Halo 3 - 8.0m units lifetime sales GTAIV - 6.0m units lifetime sales Now, I DO believe that GTAIV will do more to propell the 360 to a broader market than Halo3 will, as it helps embolden the 360 market into more casual/mainstream markets as opposed to Halo 3's hardcore shooter market. I dont think there's one major generation defining title. Wii Sports is the Wii-defining title, but I don't think it'll be the generation's defining title (as was GTAIII-SA were last gen in the west markets) Each system has it's uber-sellers: Halo 3 - 360 FFXIII - PS3 Wii Sports - Wii But just like the market is going to be so severely fragmented this generation, there won't be a true winner. Maybe Wii Sports 2 on the Wii 2, however.
Halo 2 sold more than there are 360 owners, so my guess is when Halo 3 comes out it will push 360 sales massivly upward and combined with GTA4 it should push the 360 past 10 million consoles sold in america alone.



mrstickball on 05 March 2007

I am sure between a $100 price drop and GTA IV and H3, it'll surely help the 360 to far past 10m in the US (fanboyish, sure, but the PS2 sold 600k units in October at GTA VC launch). GTA is a bigger overall franchise Halo has a more deficated fanbase Both will buy 360s because the GTA fanbase will buy the 360 due to cost (atleast most will), and H3 will convert the rest of the die-hard Halo fanbase that haven't got 360s yet. Gears of War proved how well a mega-shooter can do on the 360, even with a rather limited fanbase. Between the gains it has this year, H3 should open up with around 2.5m units sold in November, or more in the US.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

stof on 05 March 2007

mrstickball said: Halo has a more deficated fanbase
Subtle jab or freudian slip? you be the judge!



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

kars on 05 March 2007

mrstickball said: But just like the market is going to be so severely fragmented this generation, there won't be a true winner. Maybe Wii Sports 2 on the Wii 2, however.
Yes, a true winner is not there, but I think the true looser is quite clear. Sony. They were the favorite, but first they were late and more expensive, than the Xbox 360, and then they were even overwhelmed by someone that no one had on their list anymore: Nintendo. THey were so sure, that they cold use their dominating position on the games market to push BluRay, and now this decision did probably cost them their leading position. Without the BluRay drive and the HDMI they would have been much cheaper



konnichiwa on 05 March 2007

roadkillers said: gebx said: konnichiwa said: I don't know many people in Europe who haves an Xbox 360 still it is for sure not dead. I think X360 will do it great for years in the US but I think in Europe the PS3 will own the X360 very fast maybe already next year. PS3 in europe will flop! Will be the first next gen system to NOT sell out. Pre-orders already passed the supply. Sorry but try again.
Not sure about that there are more pre ordered than the One Million units that will be on the launch period. But there are a lot more PS3's pre ordered then the X360. I live in the Benelux (Belgium, Luxembourgh and The Netherlands). There were 15.000 units of X360 at the launch of X360 in the Benelux and at the launch I could buy one without pre ordering one. At 23 March there will be around 50.000 PS3 units and all of them are pre ordered and around 60.000 X360 units are sold now in the Benelux so it will just a month or two and their will be already more PS3 units sold then X360 in more than a year and 3 months.