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Forums - Sales - THE GAP - PS3 can't catch the XBOX360 - pure mathematics

BTFeather55 on 17 January 2009
BenVTrigger said:
BTFeather55 said:
Squilliam said:
JGarret said:
Squilliam, do you see the PS3 selling in the 45-55 million range by the end of 2012?

8-12 Million range per year on average for the next 3 years? EASY!

This generation has expanded so much, its hard to say when the rate of sales will drop in any apreciable quantities.

With the 360 being put out to pasture in the next couple of years, its sales will become negligible much as the regular DS's sales are now in Japan (even finishing with less than the PS3) last week; however, since neither the Wii HD (will be exactly the same as Wii 1 except for the fact it can output graphics in HD) and Wii2 (will be only about as powerful as 360 and PS3) will be significantly any more powerful than the PS3, the PS3's sales will continue for a far longer time than the 360's as Microsoft puts their game development dollars into their next console which will have Gears 3 as a launch game guaranteeing that the system will be out in the next three years.

Yes, im sure the Xbox 360 Slim's release will put a real dampener on the sales of the current Xbox 360 model. Btw, you keep stating that Gears 3 will be a launch game, yet its not even assured that it will be Xbox exclusive! Also it came out a year after the launch of the current Xbox 360 so really... Theres no past precedent and theres no assured future and yet you keep repeating yourself time and again based on what? I don't know what the next Xbox will look like, what markets it will target nor whether or not they will utilise the same or a different control scheme. I don't even know when they intend to release it, but one thing I do know is this: They will keep the Xbox 360 on the market well after they release the Xbox 720 or whatever. Microsoft doesn't have much in the way of game development studios, and besides anything else the only game Sony has thats worth anything significantly more than 3rd party releases is Gran Turismo, so really not a significant difference.

 

     You must not know about Naughty Dog, Insomniac, Sucker Punch, Level 5, the fact that Sega is putting their exclusives on the PS3.  Hideo Kojima's Next Project, God of War, Trico, FF Versus XIII, and the fact that Kingdom Hearts 3 could still wind up on PS3.

 

 

 

and your still forgetting that the ps3 doesn't move software like the 360.  Remember how Resistance 2, LBP, MGS4, and others were going to destroy the xbox? look at the attatch rate.  Sure Sony has a great exsclusive lineup on the way but the question is will it REALLY make an impact?  If theres one thing i've learned this gen the "Big Hitters" have not moved systems at all.  Look at GTA4.  In fact the only 2 big exsclusives i can think of that really pushed hardware on the HD consoles were Halo 3 and MGS4

     The problem with MGS4 was that unlike 2001 when PS2 had Jak and Daxter, Final Fantasy X, Devil May Cry, GTA III, GT3, and MGS2 all coming out within a few months of each other they all lent support to each other in generating sales for the PS2.  But LBP, Resistance, and Valkrie Chronicles didn't have the same type name recognition as some of the PS2 titles above.  Killzone 2 doesn't have that type of name recognition nor does Infamous.  However, when they have God of War III, GT5, the Final Fantasies, Ratchet and Clank Future 2, Jak and Daxter:  The Lost Territory, Sly Cooper 4, Policenauts 2 and Shenmue 3 possibly, hitting close to each other that will be the type of injection for the  PS3 that the PS2 had Christmas 2001. 

 



Heavens to Murgatoids.

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BTFeather55 on 17 January 2009
BenVTrigger said:
The game is far from over and ps3 still has a good chance of catching up though i have a couple view points on it.

A) At this point if 360 reaches a gap of 9 - 10 million over ps3 this is still retainable by PS3 though i wonder if by the time ps3 outsells the 360 it will be irrelevant since the next gen is beginning

B) At this point does it really matter? Microsoft has completly accomplished what it set out to do and that was to keep the playstation brand from becoming THE media center for the household. Remember the xbox exists because Micrsosoft feared a challenge to computers (and thus windows) as the homes media hub. Microsoft (and Nintendo) have both successfully brought down the behemouth that was the Playstation brand. Playstation is still very powerful but if anyone really thinks that the ps3 has the brand name and power of the ps2 are kidding themselves

 

      If the plan I've previously illustrated comes to fruition, it will still be relevant because Wii 2 won't be that much more powerful than PS3 if it is any more powerful technologically, so it will have to compete with quality games, and there will be two years where Microsoft is releasing games on the 720 while trying to get its price down from its $500.00 launch price to something more suitable to the mass audience.



Heavens to Murgatoids.

Squilliam on 17 January 2009

@BTFeather55: When will you get down from your fantasy pedastool and admit you don't know what the hell Microsoft OR Sony is going to do in the next 12 months, let alone 5 years.

Seriously, let go of your fantasies... It will do your sanity a lot of good.



Tease.

The on 17 January 2009

See you back in 2010.



FishyJoe on 17 January 2009

Nintendo understands how to create games that users of all abilities can enjoy. That is more valuable than any piece of technology.



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BTFeather55 on 17 January 2009
Squilliam said:
@BTFeather55: When will you get down from your fantasy pedastool and admit you don't know what the hell Microsoft OR Sony is going to do in the next 12 months, let alone 5 years.

Seriously, let go of your fantasies... It will do your sanity a lot of good.

 

      They are not fantasies.  They are predictions, and if they come true, you guys have to call me the Gaming Nostradamus.



Heavens to Murgatoids.

Hyruken on 17 January 2009

I think realisticly we have to look at the patterns of the past 3 years, well at least the past 3 holidays as that is when all the formats have been available. The pattern is and has been the Wii selling loads more then the 360 at almost 2 to 1. And the 360 out selling the PS3 2 to 1. That is what happened every year. I think the PS3 will gain consoles on the 360 over the months of april to say sept but the amount it pulls back will only be by a million or so. Then when it gets to the holidays the 360 just cains it. Reason for that is im sure most casual people buy consoles at the holidays. As the gap grows like it is (people have to remember the gap is now the furthest it has ever been) it just becomes harder and harder. Every PS3 fanboy uses the classic "wait until xyz" theory. We have had it all, all the games (like MGS4,LBP,GT5:P,RS,GTA4 etc.. all the features i.e Home etc.., all the different cheaper versions of the PS3 and so on) and nothing has actually changed.. Has to come a time when it has to start clawing those numbers back. And the only way that happens as we have seen this generation is when there is a price cut. The gap is so much now and is still growing that i just think the pattern is set in stone for this gen.



Fumanchu on 17 January 2009
BTFeather55 said:
Squilliam said:
@BTFeather55: When will you get down from your fantasy pedastool and admit you don't know what the hell Microsoft OR Sony is going to do in the next 12 months, let alone 5 years.

Seriously, let go of your fantasies... It will do your sanity a lot of good.

 

They are not fantasies. They are predictions, and if they come true, you guys have to call me the Gaming Nostradamus.

You're just a pseudo-clairvoyant like the rest of us Nostradamus, make use of the personal opinion qualifiers such as 'IMO' or 'I think' otherwise your stern matter-of-fact tone becomes quite irritating.

Microsoft abandoning an install base of ~50million when ~30% are paying LIVE subscribers would be the worst business decision of all time and I'm sure that they're aware of this hence the persistant rumours regarding 'forward compatibility'.



Smashed on 17 January 2009
radha said:
im amazed to see people thinking there is still hope for the ps3. 0.o
there is nothing i would love more than to see the ps3 turn thing around but sony is not committed to making the ps3 a success they are just going to aim for profitability and wait until this gen is over.

 

I still think theres tons of hope left for PS3, fanboys think otherwise.



BTFeather55 on 17 January 2009
Fumanchu said:
BTFeather55 said:
Squilliam said:
@BTFeather55: When will you get down from your fantasy pedastool and admit you don't know what the hell Microsoft OR Sony is going to do in the next 12 months, let alone 5 years.

Seriously, let go of your fantasies... It will do your sanity a lot of good.

 

They are not fantasies. They are predictions, and if they come true, you guys have to call me the Gaming Nostradamus.

 

You're just a pseudo-clairvoyant like the rest of us Nostradamus, make use of the personal opinion qualifiers such as 'IMO' or 'I think' otherwise your stern matter-of-fact tone becomes quite irritating.

Microsoft abandoning an install base of ~50million when ~30% are paying LIVE subscribers would be the worst business decision of all time and I'm sure that they're aware of this hence the persistant rumours regarding 'forward compatibility'.

 

      Yes, but then how do you expect them to sell a system that is going to be as significantly as much of a leap over the 360 as the 360 was over the original XBOX and that at the very least will be able to run Crysis at its highest settings as well as a high end PC without a game that is an instant must have title like  Gears of War 3 to propel its sales and convince those Live subscribers to pay the high price that such a system would cost?



Heavens to Murgatoids.