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Forums - Sales - THE GAP - PS3 can't catch the XBOX360 - pure mathematics

Jereel Hunter on 16 February 2009
crumas2 said:

Summer of 2008 I began to believe that the PS3 might catch up to and pass the sales of the 360. However, I now believe this isn't going to ever happen, and for two primary reasons:

1. Standalone Blu-ray players are falling in price faster than the PS3, making the PS3 less compelling as a standalone Blu-ray player for the mass market. This will continue as there isn't any way for Sony to sell a Blu-ray player and high-end game machine combo as cheaply as a standalone Blu-ray player without losing money, and the Blu-ray component costs are likely to fall faster than other PS3 component costs as Blu-ray devices (computer players, computer burners, standalone players, etc.) proliferate and drive manufacturing costs down.

2. Lack of BC in any PS3 model being sold. My brother has a sizeable PS2 game collection and has been waiting for the PS3 to drop to $300 to buy. When I recently told him the bad news, i.e. - that he would have to keep his PS2 around to keep playing his PS2 games, he was shocked. He has limited space in his living room entertainment center and was going to "swap-out" his PS2 with the PS3, just as he swapped-out his PS1 with his PS2 years ago.  Not to mention the hassle of having to maintain two consoles just to play "PS" games.  He went to the GameStop down the street and asked them before he would believe this was actually true. He planned the PS3 as his PS2 "upgrade" and to get Blu-ray thrown in for free. Friday he purchased an Xbox 360 Arcade to get Gears 2, Halo 3, etc. and is putting off a PS3 purchase indefinitely.  He had to get really creative with his entertainment center arrangement just to find a place for the 360... even if Sony added BC back in, he wouldn't have room for the PS3 now considering how big the PS3 is.  Perhaps if they made a slimline as small as the PS2, with BC...

The PS3 is doing well, and I expect Sony to keep producing the system for a few more years, but I'm not sure there is anything that Sony can do to get the console out of third place this generation. However, I've had a change of heart about nailing Sony to the wall on this. Yeah, they took a gamble by producing such an expensive machine, but that's what often advances the state-of-the-art in technology... taking a chance on something no one else has attempted before. Apple did it with the Mac. IBM did it with the first "PC". Etc. Etc. Hats off to Sony for pushing the competition really hard, even if it didn't win them this round.

Several people attempted it before. The Jaguar, Neo-Geo, etc. They just all failed dismally, until the PS3.

 



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Final-Fan on 16 February 2009
Jereel Hunter said:
Final-Fan said:
Online would be "fledgling" if not for Xbox Live? No, that's going too far. But it would likely be less robust.
Console online? Yeah. Do you think Sony would have a fraction of their current online offering if not for trying to catch up to Live?

Yes, in fact I do -- much more than a fraction.  Online play has been pushed forward by MS and the 360, yes, but not nearly as much as the simple fact that it was time. 

Last gen, the Dreamcast and Xbox both had strong online and the PS2 and Gamecube had extremely weak online -- almost nonexistent.  Did it help the Dreamcast?  No, it got crushed like a bug by the PS2?  Did it help the Xbox?  Maybe a little, but it didn't do much better than the Gamecube. 

This gen, all the consoles have robust online features, although Nintendo's friend codes are a problem on the Wii.  Sony wanted its PS3 to be a technological juggernaut -- no way were they going to let the online aspect be anemic.  It sure wouldn't have friend codes. 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Final-Fan on 16 February 2009

The JAGUAR, state-of-the-art technology?? Good one.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Black RL on 20 March 2009

As weeks pass by, its seems more and more impossible for the PS3 to reach the 360 and the 360 to reach the Wii.

Pure mathematics.




Megadude on 20 March 2009

Dont forget that the 360 is a year older then the PS3. During the same point in its lifetime that the 360 was where the PS3 is at 22 million the 360 only had 17. So the question of will the PS3 outsell the 360- it already has.



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sergiodaly on 20 March 2009

IMO ps3 will win the HD console war! and for me and for lots of people that aint just sell more than the opponent... its sell more and have better games and better sw sales... and i think ps3 still has a good chance!



Proudest Platinums - BF: Bad Company, Killzone 2 , Battlefield 3 and GTA4

Tim_Duncan on 20 March 2009

The gap is likely to be much lower than expected because of the 360 high failure rate.

Otherwise, why do multiplats sell better on PS3 (the dooooomed console ^^) than on 360 these day ? (RE5, SF4)

If as an average people buy 2 Xbox 360, it will make only 1 software sale, and that's even before 360 piracy. That's a lot of money lost for Microsoft. It's quite hilarious to read multiple Sony is doomed articles every day when Sony just sold 600k machines in the US last month (PS2/PS3/PSP) and when PS3 outsold 360 if you take hardware sold worldwide from launch.



Devise01 on 20 March 2009
Tim_Duncan said:
The gap is likely to be much lower than expected because of the 360 high failure rate.

Otherwise, why do multiplats sell better on PS3 (the dooooomed console ^^) than on 360 these day ? (RE5, SF4)

If as an average people buy 2 Xbox 360, it will make only 1 software sale, and that's even before 360 piracy. That's a lot of money lost for Microsoft. It's quite hilarious to read multiple Sony is doomed articles every day when Sony just sold 600k machines in the US last month (PS2/PS3/PSP) and when PS3 outsold 360 if you take hardware sold worldwide from launch.

Attach rate is higher on the 360 and software is almost 2:1.

 



papero2 on 20 March 2009
Devise01 said:
Tim_Duncan said:
The gap is likely to be much lower than expected because of the 360 high failure rate.

Otherwise, why do multiplats sell better on PS3 (the dooooomed console ^^) than on 360 these day ? (RE5, SF4)

If as an average people buy 2 Xbox 360, it will make only 1 software sale, and that's even before 360 piracy. That's a lot of money lost for Microsoft. It's quite hilarious to read multiple Sony is doomed articles every day when Sony just sold 600k machines in the US last month (PS2/PS3/PSP) and when PS3 outsold 360 if you take hardware sold worldwide from launch.

Attach rate is higher on the 360 and software is almost 2:1.

 

Attach rate and sale numbers are not the same.

its total sales divides by consoles.

I was surprise to see SF4:

360 sold 450k (there are 17 million consoles)

ps3 sold 403k (there are 8 million consoles)

 

 



PSN = vic_haste

richardhutnik on 20 March 2009
Final-Fan said:
The JAGUAR, state-of-the-art technology?? Good one.

When it was released, it was.  The problem was, a short time later, the industry shifted to polygons, and made the Jaguar look outdated.  People also coded to the 68000 processor in it, instead of the 64 bit graphics cluster and did ports of games available on other systems for that. 

Want to know state-of-the-art at the time?  Look at Tempest 2000. The SNES and Genesis can't touch that.