Disappointed with John Lucas’ latest predictions? Don’t fret!
Well, actually, these have nothing to do with John Lucas’ predictions, and they will certainly prove to be less controversial than, say, “MGS4 will never appear on PS3,” but I figure I might as well put them out on the curb and see who picks them up.
Most of these predictions will take a long time to verify, so I’ll start with one for 2007:Though Halo 3 will obviously propel XBox 360 sales, and a second “small” price cut is coming soon afterwards, Wii will return to outselling 360 on a weekly basis in America in the month of October.
Combined sales of 360 in America for the months of September and October will exceed November sales by a margin of 250-500K units.
In total, over the last 4 months of the year in America, Wii will outsell 360 by a margin of 250-500K units.
Now that that’s out of the way… How about some Wii software sales predictions?
A majority of Nintendo-published Wii games with Gamecube predecessors will have sales growth over that predecessor in a range from 40-60%. Most games not within 40-60% will be distant outliers; Pokemon Battle with decline, Mario Galaxy with 80%+ growth, Animal Crossing with over 200% growth. However, the following games will fall in the 40-60% growth range… (First number is sales of predecessor on GC, followed by the +40-60% range.)
Mario Strikers Charged—1.55M; 2.17-2.48M (600K so far)
Super Paper Mario—1.95M; 2.73-3.12M (1.25M so far)
Mario Party 8—2.44M (MP4); 3.42-3.90M (1.84M so far)
Metroid Prime 3—2.77M (MP1); 3.88-4.43M
Zelda: Twilight Princess—4.38M; 6.13-7.01M (3.61M so far)
Super Smash Bros. Brawl—6.58M; 9.21-10.53M
Mario Kart Wii—6.60M; 9.24-10.56M
Though we don’t have complete sales data for their predecessors, it wouldn’t surprise me if Fire Emblem Wii, Battallion Wars Wii, and others proved to be similar. Furthermore, possible sequels to Pikmin, Star Fox and others should also be in that range.
This one is about the all-time highest hardware sales in one year…
In Japan… By the end of 2009, Wii and DS will combine to claim the top SIX spots all-time in terms of hardware sales in one year. DS already holds the top TWO spots, at least as soon as 2007 sales pass the 5.06M mark set by PS1 in 1997 in 1-2 weeks. This basically means that in both 2008 and 2009, both Wii and DS will beat that 5M mark.
In America… By the end of 2009, Wii and DS will combine to claim at least the top THREE spots all-time in terms of hardware sales in one year. DS is tracking alongside PS2’s record 2002 right now, in which it sold 9.6M units. Including DS this year, that means DS and Wii will beat that 9.6M at least 3 times in 5 tries.
Worldwide… By the end of 2009, Wii and DS will combine to claim at least the top FOUR spots all-time in terms of hardware sales in one year. That record is likely somewhere around 23M (for PS2), though it’s hard to know exactly. To be safe, I’ll say the number is 24M, and after DS passes that mark this year (and Wii doesn’t), DS and Wii will again pass it at least 3 times in 4 tries.
How about this…
At the end of March 2007, Sony reported that PSP had shipped 25.39M units, and PS3 5.50M units. (They have since then changed their reporting method.) These 30.89M units will represent no less than 45% of the total amount of units PSP and PS3 combine to sell in their entire lifetimes.
Finally, for good measure…
Lifetime shipments of Nintendo DS will surpass 100 million in the quarter ending 31 Dec 2008. Simple enough? Through the end of June 2007, Nintendo had shipped 47.27M units.
Maybe nothing in here which is really “crazy” or even controversial… I guess I’ll find out…
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
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