Sony risks falling into a loss this year, according to a growing consensus of analysts, highlighting the pressure on Japanese manufacturers from the downturn and the strong yen.
Shares in Sony fell 8.9 per cent on Tuesday following reports that the consumer electronics group would make a Y100bn ($1.1bn) operating loss in the year to March 2009.
David Gibson, an analyst at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo, said a loss was “possible, given the tough pricing environment we saw over Christmas”.
An operating loss would be Sony’s first since 1995, when it wrote off $3.5bn on the acquisition of Columbia Pictures, and the first caused by its core electronics division.
Japanese manufacturers are struggling not only with the slowdown but also with the appreciation of the yen relative to competitors in South Korea and Taiwan. Toyota has said it will make a loss this year.
Sony declined to comment ahead of the release of its third-quarter results on January 29.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange requires companies to make a statement if they expect to miss or exceed profit forecasts by 30 per cent.
At the end of October, Sony cut its operating profit forecast 57 per cent to Y200bn, but demand and pricing conditions for televisions, cameras and other gadgets have since weakened further.
“Forecasting an operating loss of Y100bn-Y200bn is not unreasonable at this point,” said Pelham Smithers, an analyst at Pali International in Singapore.
The October forecast assumed an exchange rate of Y100 to the dollar and Y140 to the euro for the second half, but current rates are about Y89 to the dollar and Y120 to the euro. For every Y1 rise against the euro, Sony’s operating profit falls by Y7.5bn.
In December, Sony announced a restructuring of its electronics business to cut annual costs by Y100bn.
At least some of those costs – from the closure of a factory in France and one in the US – are likely to be booked in the current financial year. Analysts say that, based on past restructuring, every Y1bn of annual savings will cost about Y1bn in severance packages and other expenses.
Sony’s large life assurance division is also expected to suffer losses on its equity portfolio.
Japan’s Topix share index was down 4.8 per cent on Tuesday, and is 25 per cent lower than at the start of Sony’s second half.
One factor that analysts struggle to estimate is inventory adjustments. At the end of September, Sony held Y1,365bn in inventory and, if it judges that some of this cannot be sold, it will be forced to write it off.