There have been various thread about Star Ocean and its sales. Whether it will make it to 1M units sold, whether it will outsell White Knight Chronicles etc. Reading through these threads I see comment after comment about how Star Ocean is a small series that doesn't sell very well:

"Star Ocean as a franchise has never been marquee, and just an average (J)RPG in terms of sales."

"In fact, it'll probably go multiplatform within a few months. In the end, it'll struggle to reach 1 million."

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1503197

 "Neither of them will reach 1 million.

Both will sell rufly 750,000 liftetime."

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1662555 

There are tons more examples. A big chunk of the VGC community seems to think that Star Ocean is a small franchise which will strugle to sell well. A lot of them refer to Star Ocean: Till the End of Time, which "barley" sold 1M units on the PS2. As you can see, it easily sold 1M units without any European data:

http://vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=2182&region=All 

Selling 550K in Japan 740K in NA and 1.29M total without Europe. This makes SO one of the biggest JRPG franchises, only behind Pokemon, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts and Dragon Quest. As you can see, SO is bigger in NA than Japan just like the 360. So the big question is, can SO4 sell 1M units? I say yes it can.

I expect it to sell 250-300K in Japan, and cause a massive 360 spike, just like MGS4 percentage increase wise.

In NA I expect sales of 650-700K.

In Europe I have no idea what to expect, so I will be (very) conservative and say 200K. I don't think the franchise is very big in Europe at all.

This gives a total of 1.1-1.2M lifetime. Easily clearing the 1M units sold barrier and for completeness, (just) outselling White Knight Chronicles worldwide.

While reading through sales threads concerning SO, I get the feeling that not many people expect this to be a big seller. I think there will be a lot of stunned faces/crow eating around March time.

Balls, probably should have put this in the sales forum. Please don't lock this thread, it took quite a while to write

Star Ocean isn't bigger in America. I don't know why people take one game and start making these claims. We never got SO1, SO2 got the majority of sales from Japan (SO's sales peak in Japan), we didn't get SOBS, and the combined sales of SO3+DC I believe is higher than the NA numbers.

If SO4 sells more in NA it's because no one in Japan has a 360.

I think it does go without saying that SO is underestimated on these forums, but SO's success also depends on its situation. It's possible that SO3 may be the one game in the franchise that actually reaches those heights.

@Claude

There is very good reason to assume that SO is bigger in NA than Japan. The highest seller SO game in Japan (that we have data for) is The Second Story, which sold 720K units.

The only game we have NA data for (Till the End of Time), outsold that with 740K units, campared to 550K sales in Japan. Plus that is the latest SO game.

It should do 1.1-1.2M lifetime. I can't believe after LO people predicting such a low numbers.
Of course if doesn't live up to expectations it may not reach a million.

tri-Ace has sales data on their site. Their SO2 "overseas" total is 370k.

One game in the series selling on par with the Japanese version for the first (and possibly only) time doesn't suddenly make it bigger in NA.

But it is only 1 game in NA, can't just assume with one game that future games will sell well in NA.

While Star Ocean 3 just broke into the lower 1mil range, the past games don't have a track record of being million sellers. Still I think the expectations you have of at least 1 million isn't far out there but lower 1 million isn't a hit franchise game so I think the underestimation of the Star Ocean franchise is valid.

Not being hit franchises like Kingdom hearts, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest and the likes does mean it isn't a hit franchise. 1 million seller does not make it a big seller, just a good seller. Those other franchises are big sellers, that is why there are classified as the top franchises. Don't just throw words like big and great around, many people are doing that here.

Star Ocean will be, in my opinion, the best RPG of this generation. It never performs like it and never gets the acclaim it deserves, but it's leagues better than games like Oblivion or Fallout 3 in my opinion. It makes Final Fantasy look like child's play.

I haven't played an RPG that I enjoyed as much as Til The End of Time in so long I can't even remember.

@Claude

Thanks for the sales information.

@Kowenicki

But it seems to be a pretty mixed bunch of fans/fanboys who don't think it will sell particularly well.

I'm a huge fan of the series who doesn't believe it'll sell well.

I think it'll sell better than almost any other 360 RPG to date, but I don't think it'll sell to what it deserves.  No iteration of the series has so far.  Maybe that's why they've decided to try the 360..see if a change of scenery can give it the sales it deserves.  I still want this game on PS3, but I'll buy it on 360 and get the PS3 version later if it ever comes.