hsrob said: vthokiesrmoo said: i edited my post! I DO believe its market share will drop below 20%. And yes i do realize that they are about to break even on the costs of producing to the revenue of selling each console. Even if this is true Sony has stated it costed them about $875,000,000 USD to develop the ps3. If they made an average of $100 on each PS3 over its lifespan (which is even probably less than they will end up making per console sold) they would need to sell 8.75 million units over its remaining lifespan to negate the costs of development and make a profit. Sony will most definitely make a profit off the PS3, it would be against business ethics to take on an investment with a negative return because you are not benefitting the shareholders of the company. Sorry dude, i don't mean to pick but 875 million is the tip of the iceberg.  Sony have already sold twenty million consoles with anywhere from 50-300 dollars lost per console.  Even most conservative estimates put total losses for the PS3 at about 3 billion all things considered.  Plus there are going to be many more systems sold before they go from $50 lost per console to $100 profit per console.  Cost cutting is only achieved by continual refinement of the manufacturing process which can only be achieved by continuous manufacturing.

the absolute minimum you can put ps3 losses at are 3.5 billion, that is without taking into consideration any profit made on PS2 and PSP hardware and software.

 

didn't take that into account. change a few numbers. 3.5 billion is certainly not a minimum, it was stated that in March 08 losses were about to reach 2 billion due to the ps3. So we will be generous and say right now around +-.1 -3.0 billion in losses due to ps3 . About 8 years to make up that 3 billion. If they make an average $100 per console over that 8 years they need to sell 30 million. They have sold 2/3 that many with 400-500-600 dollar price tags and the games are just starting to come.

I think profitability is certainly attainable.

vthokiesrmoo said: yeah i know they have sold more than that already, but they aren't making a profit yet so those sales don't count. Once sales start contributing towards liabilities then you can count them for making profits. I'm saying if they made 100 dollars per console as an average over the lifespan of the console they would only need to sell 8.75 million to break even on the development costs of the ps3. They will most definitely sell that much by the end of the consoles lifespan and will most likely make an average comprible to $100 per console when its all said and done, so to conclude, profitability is inevitable.

I understand what you mean, but the 8.75 figure is meaningless and you pulled the $100 profit completely out of your ass.

vthokiesrmoo said: didn't take that into account. change a few numbers. 3.5 billion is certainly not a minimum, it was stated that in March 08 losses were about to reach 2 billion due to the ps3. So we will be generous and say right now around +-.1 -3.0 billion in losses due to ps3 . About 8 years to make up that 3 billion. If they make an average $100 per console over that 8 years they need to sell 30 million. They have sold 2/3 that many with 400-500-600 dollar price tags and the games are just starting to come. I think profitability is certainly attainable.

Sony Nintendo Microsoft Industry
Y/E 1998 $902,811,090 $1,023,333,867 $1,926,144,957
Y/E 1999 $1,102,563,557 $1,301,350,000 $2,403,913,557
Y/E 2000 $722,738,949 $1,368,207,547 $2,090,946,497
Y/E 2001 -$449,776,290 $677,576,000 $227,799,710
Y/E 2002 $629,101,056 $895,872,180 -$1,135,000,000 $389,973,237
Y/E 2003 $935,569,253 $834,333,333 -$1,191,000,000 $578,902,586
Y/E 2004 $627,195,212 $993,161,303 -$1,337,000,000 $283,356,515
Y/E 2005 $419,888,799 $1,056,056,202 -$539,000,000 $936,945,001
Y/E 2006 $69,129,058 $774,478,055 -$1,339,000,000 -$495,392,887
Y/E 2007 -$1,970,923,859 $1,914,666,388 -$1,969,000,000 -$2,025,257,471
Y/E 2008 -$1,079,994,103 $4,322,637,887 $426,000,000 $3,668,643,783

Y/E 09Q1 $51,113,208 $1,124,452,830 $178,000,000 $1,353,566,038
Y/E 09Q2 -$379,471,154 $1,278,759,610

Again you're wrong.  You can attribute an absolute minimum of 3.4 billion dollars to PS3.  This doesn't take a cent of the profits of the PS2 or PSP into consideration, We're looking at probably 4.5 billion realistically.  They will never make an average of $100 per console.  If Sony waits that long for a price cut the PS3 will die.

whoa numbers got fudged, the first column is sony

vthokiesrmoo said: didn't take that into account. change a few numbers. 3.5 billion is certainly not a minimum, it was stated that in March 08 losses were about to reach 2 billion due to the ps3. So we will be generous and say right now around +-.1 -3.0 billion in losses due to ps3 . About 8 years to make up that 3 billion. If they make an average $100 per console over that 8 years they need to sell 30 million. They have sold 2/3 that many with 400-500-600 dollar price tags and the games are just starting to come. I think profitability is certainly attainable.

 

PS2 only made 2.2 billion (probably around 3 since the PS3 wiped away the profits since it launched) in its lifetime, what makes you think PS3 is gonna make 3 billion.

The PS3 wiped away every cent of profit Sony made from 2000- quarter 2 2009, that includes all of the ps2's profits and part of the ps1's profits.  You still think the ps3 is gonna make it all back?

profit is impossible.  It's not even a discussion.

haha i do admit i bs'd the $100

but no the numbers are more around 3.0 billion losses from the ps3 in sept of 08 so your 4.5 is way too high, the 3.4 is more realistic. sony makes money off software the produce for the ps3 too its not all about the hardware. The ps3 will be profitable, if not just the hardware, the overall.

Final-Fan said: ksv said: Of course it will dip under 20%. I wouldn't even be surprised if it approaches 15%, but chances are it will turn around a bit for Sony before that happens. Extremely high and low percentages are hard to do.  To reach 15%, if the PS3 were at 20 million, the others would have to be at 113 million total ... 30m, 170m (Think you meant 100m there).  Right now it's at 19.31 and 72.81.

 

 Yes, reaching 15% is unlikely, approaching 15% - quite possible. For this to happen it requires the current trends to continue, but like I said in my post, there's a good chance the tides will turn a little in the future.

Yes I think it will fall below 20%, I made a thread the other day about how I think the PS3 will fall below 15% in NA ... its at 16.9% atm.

vthokiesrmoo said: haha i do admit i bs'd the $100 but no the numbers are more around 3.0 billion losses from the ps3 in sept of 08 so your 4.5 is way too high, the 3.4 is more realistic. sony makes money off software the produce for the ps3 too its not all about the hardware. The ps3 will be profitable, if not just the hardware, the overall.

 

can you even read?  3.4 billion is what it shows on sony's financials, the problem is that PS2 and PSP are making a profit to push that number down.  3.4 billion is the absolute minimum assuming the PS2 and PSP made no money.  Are you telling me PS2 and PSP made no money?