Whilst I agree that a 2009 price cut is likely ($50 in Sep is my prediction) I must correct the following statement

"Now, two years later, it's estimated that one 80GB model costs Sony $448 to manufacture"


Try
Now, two years later, the sum total of all the components of one 80GB is $448, but obviously when you factor is assembly, shipping, $40 or so to be given to the retailer, Sony likely makes a loss on each PS3 sold. Obviously, most of the opportunity for price dropping comes in the first 2 years of a console, or when features are removed So the $196 of savings will not occur. It is therefore almost guaranteed that Sony would still make a loss on each PS3 sold on Dec 31st, 2009 if the price was not dropped.

299$ is a sweet spot for ps3, but a price cut wont come til later in march when moved to 45nm