Depends on when Sony launches the next console, when they shift all their first party titles to the next console, and how long the consumers continue to buy third party software. Once the third party software starts to die, the console will too.

I think the '10 year plan/promise' is 2 things.

1. Sony's Goal/Aspiration - they want to support it for that length of time as they stand to make millions upon millions on game royalties on a 10 year install base.

2. PR bullshit designed to invoke consumer confidence in a long life of the console to justify the huge initial expenditure of the console itself.

Both of these things however in no way guarantee the said plan from realisation. They have no control whatsoever in bringing this to fruition as it's the consumers that dictate the life of a console - if there's no demand then retailers won't stock it. If you can't buy it then developers stop their support of it. I guess Sony can get a first party developer to make 2 games a year for it - just to say they can, but would you still be playing a console with 2 games released a year?

 Demand keeps them alive in essence. However, because of the PS3's cost of production supply is below demand.

Very silly question. It's up to Consumers. If consumers dont want it, there is nothing that Sony can do to make it 10 year plan. I predict the console lasts 6 years max.

 Proof that the consumers of Sony products don't control shit with Sony was Sony's manipulation of the console/Blu Ray DVD market. They used demand for another product to up the value of a less desirable one. They also used rental monopolies on HD products to keep Blu Ray on top.