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Forums - Sales - Unpopular predictions for Sony's 2009

who said theyd give up on PS3? was it some sort of idiot



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celine said:
Billions dollar loss for the entire company in the holiday quarter ? Dunno but if true it is an hard hit to Sony.
We'll see soon enough.

The funny thing about holiday quarters is this... Sales are huge, therefore revenue is huge. If you're making a profit on your sales, this means holiday quarters are of course more profitable than other quarters. If, however, your profit margins reverse into loss margins (as it seems to be the case), the opposite happens.

Of course fixed costs (such as salaries) are also part of the equation. The more the revenue, the less relevant these are.

 



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BengaBenga said:
Lale said:
BengaBenga said:

That doesn't really matter, that was always the case. Sony's figures are in Yen and most of the revenue is in dollars. Hence a higher Yen means that the same amount of income in dollars will be a lower amount of income in Yen.

For example the most expensive part of running a business are the employees. Most of those are paid in Yen.

 

 

But if the hardware components are bought with the revenue Dollars, and the labor people at the factories in China are paid in yuan (or whatever the currency is there) or Dollars, then not only the revenue shrinks due to high yen but also the expenses do.

 

You're seeing it wrong. The expenses in dollar countries stay the same, since most revenue is from dollars. The expenses in Yuan might be a little smaller, but that's peanuts compared to the real issue.

It's like this: Revenue-Expenses=Profit
Expenses stay more or less the same, sure maybe some Chinese labour is cheaper, but all Japanese people (much more) are relative to the main currecy of income more expensive.

The real issue (again) is the revenue in dollars. Let's say a $400 PS3 was worth Y1000 and now Y800 (completely fictional values, but the difference is more or less 20%), you can see that for millions of dollars the amount of difference becomes pretty big. Add to that that Sony is (in)Famous for its low margins and a high Yen can mean the difference between profit and loss.

 

It is not obvious to me (from the information I've seen) that manufacturing costs are the most significant cause of forex loses.

Manufacturing in the semiconductor industry is ruinously capital intensive. This why IBM formed it's formed it's coalition of everyone-except-intel super friends, no one of them alone could afford to keep up. Actual "assembly line" labor costs are relatively small.

On the other hand all of their Japanese studios, firmware developers, etc will have had an instantaneous hit to ROI. Also, lets say they have a standard rate of capital depreciation for intellectual property. Since capital was valued in yen and most of their revenue was not valued in yen it would have a deleterious afffect on operating profit.



Sony won't stoop as low as Sega, that's for sure!



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Nice analysis. Sony isn't doing that nicely atm, but its not dying and neither is PS3. Anyway theres no indication of PS4 and there might even not be PS4, if sony won't make enough profit/profit at all with PS3.



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I don't see PS3 being discontinued.. however, I doubt that third parties will see it as a viable platform with the spectacular failures of Haze and Lair. Sony could get back in the game by releasing some awesome 1st party (GT5 is the only one that comes to mind) and renew interest in the PS3.

 



its like sony say, theyare in it for the long run! what the rush for a price cut? they should do one when they are good and ready.