Not really. Microsoft wouldn't fear such a slight margin that Sony would get from the console this way. Pioneer would instead be very pleased to make a suitable offer. It would depend much more on development and production costs for the new format, than on anything else. If Sony gets 1 cent for every prouced disc but the production is 2 $ cheaper its a very simple decission.

But you can bet that they wouldn't call this file system, BluRay...

Well of course all 3 console makers are at some point in the planning stages.  But that doesn't say much about the timeline on the console's release, not even having at least one game in development. 

Earlier, I believe you said that the next Xbox would come out at such and such a time because of the timing with the next Gears of War game.  But although these big exclusives are indeed juggernauts, they are not in fact able to push around console launches.  If Gears of War 3 is considered a critical asset to the next Xbox's launch window, it can get delayed more easily than MS will revise its preferred launch timing.

easy

i think the PS3 will sell 50-60m lifetime, so yes i think it will sell 40m easily

hard

      Microsoft's preferred launch timing is November 2010.  The longest that the delay between Gears 2 and 3 is will be 3 years much as it was between Halo 2 and 3 giving Microsoft a year to get the Nextbox's price point down to a more consumer friendly one while keeping the clamor for Gears 3 as high as it has been built.  History in this industry tends to repeat itself.

 Make it a poll. I vote 'no way in hell'.  Lucky to hit 30M.

2009  5M

2010 4M

2011 2M

2012 Thud.

That's IF they don't pull the plug this spring which is still quite likely....

 Joke post?

      I don't know how it is going to be selling in such low numbers with such huge exclusives as God of War III, Hideo Kojima's Policenauts 2, Dare I say it Shenmue 3, Metal Gear 5, Trico, Final Fantasy XIII exclusive to Japan and the blu-ray version being by far the best one in the rest of the world, FF Versus XIII, and still possibly FFVII Blu-Ray and Kingdom Hearts III, a number of new games from Naughty Dog including new Jak and Daxter:  The Lost Territory and Uncharted 2 and 3 , Insomniac with Resistance 3 and probably two more Ratchet games, and Sucker Punch InFamous I-III and new Sly Cooper, Heavy Rain being the rebirth of cinematic gaming, and Gran Turismo 5 all on the way.

Difficult to say, but look at Resistance 2, Motorstorm 2 and even LBP. All good titles but you can't say that they really moved consoles. Instead the PS-3 sold more or less on a steady rate, bu6t while the Wii and the Xbox360 after the price cut, sell consoles to casual gamers, the PS-3 stays trageted at film enthusiasts and hardcore gamers. Better and cheaper BluRay players make the PS-3 less attractive but even with a price cut the PS-3 might have trouble to reach the casual gamers, till it can reach at least the 250$ mark.

Considering these elements and the weak economy, which will have an even stronger impact in the next year, I wouldn't be surprised if the PS-3 might sell less than 7 million consoles in the next year.

Everything after that would be pure guess work.