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Forums - Sales - Nintendo Wii: Facing the Inevitable

dharh on 27 December 2008

The truth is Nintendo has been segmented away from the 'hardcore' (for lack of a better term) since those gamers came onto the scene. It's not really nintendo's fault. 'Hardcore' came from really nowhere during the PSX and PS2 gen and really grew with the PS2/XBOX crowd while nintendo continued doing what it did.

Now Nintendo is overwhelming the 'hardcore/HD' group with the 'casuals' which seem to be dwarfing them in size. It's not hard to imagine the worry some 'hardcore/HD' gamers might have that they will be niched into a market where they get less games of lesser quality they like.



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BrainBoxLtd on 27 December 2008
famousringo said:
BrainBoxLtd said:
Viper1 said:
Can we a "Bruce on Games said so" square to Wii Bingo?

 

 I think the Wii Bingo board should get an update in general. In two years there's been a lot of new crazy reasons to why the Wii will fail. We're seeing a lot more lame excuses to why the Wii simply doesn't count now. =P

To be fair, Burce is still a better analyst then many others. He does back up his claims with several reasons. There horribly idiotic reasons that make no sense such as "The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii.", but he does have them, that's further then a lot of analysts ever get.

 

 

You're right. The goalposts keep moving, and they can only be moved back so many times before you need to move the whole field with them.

Actually Final-Fan posted a thread about exactly that in April. But that was like 8 months ago. Maybe I'll put up a new one. It's defintely time.

 



bigjon on 27 December 2008
HappySqurriel said:

It is inevitable that the Wii will see lower sales than it has seen over 2008 but that doesn't mean that lower sales are in its immediate future ...

Last year at about this time people were predicting that the Wii was going to struggle in 2009 because big games (like Grand Theft Auto and Metal Gear Solid) were going to convince the typical gamer that the HD consoles were better gaming systems than the Wii; as we all know, this year the Wii sold about 25 Million consoles and the HD consoles sold about 21 Million (combined).

Now, lets look forward to 2009 ... Compared to how the 2008 line-up looked in December 2007, and how the 2007 line-up looked in December of 2006, the 2009 third party line-up for the Wii looks like its best ever while the line-up for the HD consoles looks like their weakest line-ups ever. If 2009 plays out in a similar fashion to how previous years have in this generation (and the Wii's line-up grows from new announcements, and the HD consoles are plagued with delays and exclusive games becomming multiplatform) it is quite possible that the Wii's third party line-up could actually be similar or better than the HD console's third party line-up. Now, I'm not going to argue that the Wii will have a better line-up than the HD consoles, but it seems remarkably foolish to predict that the Wii will fade away and the HD consoles will rise when the quality of library for the Wii compared to the HD consoles will be its strongest ever.

 

 very well put. I am starting to feel that is the way thing are headed too.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Swoosh2000 on 27 December 2008

By the time the "bubble is ready to burst" Nintendo can just release Wii 2. 

Truth is this -- hardcore gamers are only one segment of the gaming population, and on top of that Sony and Microsoft will split that audience leaving everything else for Nintendo. 



colonelstubbs on 27 December 2008

I have to agree, the wii does need some more stellar games to come out soon, or the novelty will wear off, we all know it



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Swoosh2000 on 27 December 2008
colonelstubbs said:
I have to agree, the wii does need some more stellar games to come out soon, or the novelty will wear off, we all know it

 

People said the same thing about the DS. Its library improved dramatically in year 3/4, and the Wii looks to be following the exact same pattern. 

Third party support looks considerably better next year for instance. 



zleep on 27 December 2008

The Wü is a fad!



Avinash_Tyagi on 27 December 2008

Ah Bruce on games, I remember him, I stopped reading this post of his when he said that the 360 is cheaper, clearly he doesn't understand market structures



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Swoosh2000 on 27 December 2008

Nintendo hasn't even come close to playing any of their big cards yet either. 

The Wii hasn't gotten a proper Zelda game (Twilight Princess was a GameCube game), a new Donkey Kong platformer on the Wii could be just as big as DKC was on the SNES, there's Pikmin 3, Star Fox used to be a huge franchise before Nintendo farmed it out, it could be again on the Wii. And there's much better third party support on the horizon. 

Not to mention, they could just drop the price by $50 every year from here on out until Wii 2 ...

2009 - $199.99

2010 - $149.99

2011 - $99.99

fall 2011/2012 - Wii 2

That's *if* they feel the need to. 



vaio on 27 December 2008
BrainBoxLtd said:
famousringo said:
BrainBoxLtd said:
Viper1 said:
Can we a "Bruce on Games said so" square to Wii Bingo?

 

 I think the Wii Bingo board should get an update in general. In two years there's been a lot of new crazy reasons to why the Wii will fail. We're seeing a lot more lame excuses to why the Wii simply doesn't count now. =P

To be fair, Burce is still a better analyst then many others. He does back up his claims with several reasons. There horribly idiotic reasons that make no sense such as "The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii.", but he does have them, that's further then a lot of analysts ever get.

 

 

You're right. The goalposts keep moving, and they can only be moved back so many times before you need to move the whole field with them.

Actually Final-Fan posted a thread about exactly that in April. But that was like 8 months ago. Maybe I'll put up a new one. It's defintely time.

 

We  should change it to the Wii lotto board and have the numbers being replaced with the wii coments/predictions.

 



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