kn said: couchmonkey said: A)I don't doubt an HD Wii is in the works, B)As for the idea that Nintendo isn't competing with PS3 and 360 - that's exactly what Nintendo wants you to think - it makes it oh so much easier to take over the industry by stealth. C)The fact is, PS3 sales are horrendous compared to PS2, and 360 sales are hardly better than the original Xbox. Meanwhile, Wii is picking up the slack at an amazing rate   A) You would have to be crazy to think that Nintendo R&D isn't already working on ideas for their next generation.  When you have the kind of corporate profits you have now, you spend a lot on R&D because you can cover the costs.  I assure you they are working on ideas for their next generation of video game systems and controllers. B) Maybe so, but I stand by my argument that that they really aren't competing for the same gamer. C) PS3 sales are horrendous for one reason:  Price.  This is where I belive my argument that they AREN'T competing holds water.  Th $600 PS3 and the $250 Wii were not competing for the same set of gamers dollars.  One was and is chasing nintendo faithful and casual gamers.  The other is chasing the cutting edge gamer.  Two completely different audiences.  If the PS3 WAS competing with the Wii, they wouldn't have been priced at $600 and they certainly wouldn't have the level of hardware they do now.  At 299, for instance, a PS3 could have had decent graphics hardware but no blueray and they probably would now be competing with the Wii...

I agree kn...PS3 sales are going to suck for sometime now because its lack of pricing strategy, but considering that Sony is going to push through and continue...hold on that would be a good topic.

@kn

I agree that within a market there can be niches where there is not competition. Your example of the car market is a great example of that.

It is only because of the market strategies of Sony and Microsoft that I am not willing to admit they are not competing.

The loss-leading strategy *requires* game sales to make a profit. It is more as if Shell gave away cars (just for a brand name, say Ferraris) for huge discounts that required a Shell-specific gasoline that was marked up a lot, and moved all Shell stations to only distribute that gasoline: If people decide to buy Hondas that are not discounted that only use gas that is sold at Amoco/BP, Shell loses. And while they are not in direct competition (possibly, I am not convinced on that argument) you cannot say they are not in competition.

However, I do see your point and I am fully willing to admit that the overlap between potential (exclusive) Wii buyers and potential (exclusive) PS3 buyers is small, at least right now. As the PS3 gets cheaper it will start to overlap more, though -- and when it gets larger they will certainly be in DIRECT competition.

All forms of entertainment are in competition for the entertainment dollar. Trying to parse out, carve up and build walls between different sources of entertainment and their revenue is an interesting exercise but at some point it becomes meaningless. All consumers have a finite amount of dollars that they will spend for entertainment. Some entertainment will get a lot of dollars, some entertainment will get some dollars and some entertainment will get very few dollars. All forms of entertainment are in competition for the entertainment dollar.

fkusumot said: All forms of entertainment are in competition for the entertainment dollar. Trying to parse out, carve up and build walls between different sources of entertainment and their revenue is an interesting exercise but at some point it becomes meaningless. All consumers have a finite amount of dollars that they will spend for entertainment. Some entertainment will get a lot of dollars, some entertainment will get some dollars and some entertainment will get very few dollars. All forms of entertainment are in competition for the entertainment dollar.

That is something that people constantly miss ...

People have limited time and money to devote to personal entertainment and the time and moeny they spend on music, movies, television and reading certainly can not be spent on playing videogames; the only thing to note with this is that people are unlikely going to completely replace all of their time/money from a particular activity and replace it with another so there are limits to the ammount of time/money you can capture accross markets.

The videogame industry itself has limited personal and financial resources to devote to producing games as well, money and development teams that have been devoted to the Wii or Nintendo DS certainly can not (easily) be devoted to producing PS3, XBox 360 or PSP games.This puts developers in the position where they have to allocate their resources in a way which minimizes the ammount of resources consumed whilst capturing the largest portion of their consumers' resources; essentially they want to invest the least ammount of money to get the largest ammount of revinue thereby maximizing their profit.

The end result of this is the PS3 is in direct competition with the Nintendo DS (and Nintendo Wii) regardless of whether people realize this or not.

 

i'll admit i didnt read thru all five pages.

but i just want to agree on a point made by someone on the first page.

hopefully all the money made on wii/ds will be put into good use for a awesome next gen console/handheld. not sayin the current wii isnt good as it is now but next gen wii def need more power / better graphics and more importantly, a more accurate motion sensoring system.

so if the wii will 'so called win' this gen, i hope that the next gen wii can achieve 1:1 motion controls which i had hope will happen with the current wii. . .

(on a side note, maybe when a 1:1 happens we will finally get to wield a lightsaber in a star war game...)

I think a distinction needs to be made here.

Perhaps it's true that very few people who are buying Wiis would buy a PS3 if the Wii didn't exist, but I don't think that that means that the Wii and PS3 aren't competing.

It's true that the PS3 appeals primarily to die-hard Sony fans and hardcore gamers, while the Wii is much stronger in the casual market, but it's not like Sony doesn't want the PS3 to be strong in the casual market. They're pushing it as a BluRay player and they're trying to cut the price as fast as they can.

They're competing against each other for casual gamers in the same way that $1 apples compete with $2 apples. Many people who would be willing to pay $1 for an apple wouldn't buy $2 apples if they were the only choice. Likewise, people who are willing to pay $250 for a game console might not be willing to pay $500 for a game console. That still seems like competition, just poor competition on the part of the expensive apple.

And, of course, when the PS3's price comes down, it's going to be competing with the Wii from today. People who bought a Wii in the last year won't be in the market for a PS3 when it does come down to $300.

Soriku said: Then wouldn't next-gen be the equivelant (sp?) of the PS1 then PS2. What I mean by this is the PS1 was Sony's "beginning" stage of domination, gathering most third-parties, but not to the max. Then came the PS2, devs knew PS1 owned and knew PS2 would too so they saved their "big guns" for it. Now my thoughts are: Wii = PS1 (ie. gathering T-Ps like crazy and getting GREAT games, but all that when they knew domination was beginning to the end) Now assuming Wii wins.., Wii 2 = PS2 (ie. T-Ps just flocked to it then easily won) Meaning when Wii 2 comes out it'll get FF, KH, Tales, Castlevania, SO, SC, etc. (just to name a few) And since next-gen the Wii 2 will enforce HD devs wouldn't have to worry about "power problems" That'd be great... Just a thought.

 Nothing is a shoo-in until all systems for this current generation are done with sales.  This could be a generation unlike all others where one system started hot, then cooled down and one that started slowly amped up sales to a record pace.  Right now it's too early to gauge with 100% certainty which console will win.  The Wii has a heck of a lot of momentum going right now, and we'll see here over the years exactly what it is able to do. 

 As far as comparing it to the PS1, I think that's a bit premature right now.  The PS1 took the gaming world by storm and had some very impressive 3rd party games and companies that were exclusive.  Will there be a switch to the wii by 3rd parties?  Maybe, maybe not.  We'll see sooner or later.

 We don't even have specs of what the next console Nintendo will release next and aren't even certain how long they'll keep the Wii as it currently is.  Although it's no where near as powerful as the 360 or PS3 right now the gaming public has jumped on the Wii boat head first and they may decide to become a 2 system household where they have the Wii for party and motion games, and then the 360 or PS3 for the heavy hitting graphics rich games.  I think we'll see a definite increase in this part of the market then we have ever seen in the past. 

 There will be some 3rd parties who won't jump though because they want to be cutting edge when it comes to gameplay and graphics.  They want what they make to be the most beautiful game that they can possibly code, and it's never going to be it's best on the Wii.  The wii does excel with "cartoony" type graphics, but mostly its because of the franchises they have, and the limited graphical ability of the Wii.  This isn't a knock on the Wii, they just went another route for this generation. 

 What will this generation come to bring us?  We'll just have to wait and see, and enjoy the great games coming out for the systems we own.  Next generation?  That's too far to say for sure how it will pan out. :)

robjoh said: After some time away from this thread I released that the only thing I really want an answer to is the following: Those of you that belives strongly in in that Nintendo will give Wii a lifespann of 2-3 years (Onna76, konnicha I am looking at you) (Ending in 2008 or 2009), in what way is that a good economical move for Nintendo?

Here I am just quoting myself (pathetic I must say) to see if I could get an answer to the question above.

alpha_dk said: @kn  As the PS3 gets cheaper it will start to overlap more, though -- and when it gets larger they will certainly be in DIRECT competition.

I absolutely agree...  Microsoft will be the first one, I think, to reach the Wii price point and be more of a direct competitor.  It will be interesting to see if, when that happens, Nintendo responds with a price cut or they hold the line to see what happens.

kn said: alpha_dk said: @kn As the PS3 gets cheaper it will start to overlap more, though -- and when it gets larger they will certainly be in DIRECT competition. I absolutely agree... Microsoft will be the first one, I think, to reach the Wii price point and be more of a direct competitor. It will be interesting to see if, when that happens, Nintendo responds with a price cut or they hold the line to see what happens.

 From what I understand, Nintendo can sell Wiis for $200 and still make a profit on every unit. So they should be very well prepared if a cheap 360 starts eating away at Wii sales. They might even be able to start moving lower as the miracle of economies of scale pushes their costs ever lower.