@Onna76:

I don't see how that could really happen (Wii 2-3 year life span).  I used to think that myself, that after 3 years there would be a Wii HD or similar.  But with 20 million owners next March (Low estimate compared to Nintendo's own estimate) I don't see how developers could ignore Wii.  It will be the only place for second tier games to make any money.  GCN was supported with 20 million users for 5 years, and it didn't reach that number as fast.  The user base will be large enough at the end of chrismas to keep it going...

Will people stop playing it though?  I don't think many of the 2006-7 Wii buyers are going to go ignore their Wii.  $250 may be a cheap system, but it is still a lot of money to many people.  I don't mean income wise, I mean perception.  I don't think that they all are going to buy a second, and even if the do, I don't think they would completely ignore their Wii.  There will be better games later in the generation on all the systems, if people are buying Zelda, Rabbids, DQ spin-offs, etc. now why wouldn't they buy games for it in two years?

Nintendo will continue to support it, 20 million users is more than enough for them to make a profit.  Iwata said he would consider it a failure if it sold less than GCN, it wouldn't be though.

It won't stop at 20 million anyway.  With your theory of 2 years, lets play with numbers for a second.  Let's say after the holidays Wii dropped to 360 sales levels WW (won't get that low next year, but let's just pretend).  It would still be far ahead of other platforms, developers will have a larger audience on Wii.

Nintendo could do a lot of different things to drive sales in 08.  At least 6 major nintendo games (a conservative estimation of million sellers by holiday 08: Smash, Zelda, Mario, Wario Ware, Super Paper Mario and Metroid) and many minor titles could be dropped to $20.   For '08 a $199 Wii and a bunch of $20 games would be hard for christmas shoppers to resist.  By then there will be shelves of $20 3rd party games: Rabbids, Red Steel, two Medal of Honor games, a Call of Duty game, lots of sports titles, RE4, DQS (which I know you hate, but it is still a solid seller), Brothers in Arms, MySims, on and on...

 I am a PSWii owner like you (I hate that word "PSWii").  I don't see PS3 competing next chrismas either though.  There aren't as many games and more importantly there won't be as many cheap games.  $20 games are some of the most powerful system sellers, that is what drove the PS2 into 110 million homes (not any one game).  Most people don't spend as much or don't want to spend as much on games as we, the "hardcore" gamers do.

 I owned all three consoles last gen, and I probably won't this gen (till very late, like $150-200 360 Premium late).  I am happy to know whether or not PS3 succeeds or fails, that I will have more than enough games to play on it.  Hell I have gotten hundred, if not thousands, of hours out of each the GCN, Xbox 1, Dreamcast, N64 and Genesis.  They were all "losers" of the generation, but all of them had great games, and I got my money's worth.

Nice post steven787

Thanks guys.

I am all for making fun of consoles and picking sides. I do. (like my new sig?)

But when talking about sales or popularity of games, we should try to remain objective. The better our behavior on these forums, the better the credibility of VGchartz as a whole.

I am not saying Wii is going to sell 100 million units, I don't know and don't really care (EDIT: I do care from a sales watching perspective, but not from a gaming perspective). I want everyone to have a chance to enjoy the Wii, but I don't care if it sells 20 million or 100 million. The current situation though looks like it is going to sell more than 20 million, and first.

I still say that I think this gen will go on longer than previous generations and that because of that all three consoles could do very well.

Let me correct myself.  I think that Sony and MS have the power to extend this generation, but may or may not.

I think they have the processing power to continue past 2010/2011 but I can't see them doing well in the following generation if they try to keep this generation alive whilst Nintendo releases a new console ... Regardless of what some people will say one of the biggest advantages Sony had in the Playstation and PS2 generations was an 18 month lead time before their competition released their consoles.

Regardless of how the rest of this generation plays out I expect to see Nintendo release their next system in Q4 of 2011; by then they will be easily able to produce a system that is dramatically more powerful than the PS3/XBox 360 and can be sold for $200 to $300 without taking much of a loss. If Microsoft or Sony decides to wait for 2012 (or worse 2013) to release their system they will have an uphill battle to even catch up.

Basically, Sony and Microsoft could end up seeing themselves in a similar position to where Nintendo and Microsoft were in durring the PS2/Gamecube/XBox generation.

Wii successor will probably appear in 2011-2012 (5-6 years)

360 successor will probably appear in 2009 (4 years)

PS4 will probably appear in either 2009 (to compete with 360's successor) or in 2012 (6 very long years)

I'm with you. No matter what anyone says without the Japanese market NO ONE can win.

I think that neither 720 nor PS4 will come out 2009 because of the following reasons:
1. Microsoft's gaming division was already under a lot of fire from the share-holders because 360 killed the original xbox just as it was starting to make money. Do you think that share-holders would allow that to happen again?

2. Sony made about 2 billion $ from PS2 over the course of the last generation, which they have wasted in the very first year that PS3 has come out. Sony has been preaching its 10-year lifetime mantra for a while, so I dont think they are going to kill PS3 in 2009. I think that by 2009 it will start to make money and they will wait for a couple of years after that to save up for the next generation and make up for the losses in the previous years.

^ That sounds reasonable and I hope that it is going to be like that, because consoles are supposed to be a cheaper alternative for gaming compared to PC gaming, but if the consoles come out at the rate that I upgrade my PC then I am just going to go back to PC gaming.

I am with Michael Patcher his idea.

Wii 2 in 2009