MKWii is looking at 30 million - 40 million sales eventually. That's unbelievable.

Key advantage for MKWii: The Wii wheel is easier to make than the balance board. ;)

I really doubt Wii Sports Resort will be as big as Mario Kart/Wii Fit, but I could be wrong.

PS: I checked a bit, and couldn't find any other mutliplat games that threaten MKWii.

I was wrong on one thing though.

GTA IV will > Wii Fit for first 52 weeks. It will also beat GTA:SA

Current sales: 11.74M, and it still has several weeks left.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Good, good!

All right, guys. Let's meet back up in a year to see who had the best 104 weeks. I want to see whose legs are longer.

Well it is quite an accomplishment. Mario Kart has just increasingly over the years become a more massive series.

Ey, MKWii's first year will probably > all previous gen games first 2 years.

GTA: SA sold ~ 2.2M from week 52-104. http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2&reg2=All&game2=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=104

MKWii will have passed GTA:SAs 104 weeks by the end of January (less than 45 weeks).

For MKWii's 104 week, total. Well...

If we say 16M after 52 weeks.

Then we exclude the next holiday (9 weeks November + December) and you have 43 weeks. MKWiis average will probably pin between 100-150K, so ~ 5M seems reasonable for this time.

Then, there's the holidays. For 08, we're looking at ~ 5M for the holidays. If we say a 33% drop, that puts it at ~ 3.33M

So I'd say roughly 25M seems reasonable for 104 weeks MKWii.

This is a reasonable, well-measured conclusion.

I just want to see how well Wii Fit stacks up in the long term.

Hey Koopatrooper who is that hot girl shaking her butt.

Let's put it this way...

The first 4 MK games sold a combined total of 31.04m.

MKDS + MKWii have sold 26.45m so far. This past week, they sold 1.3m combined.

A fairly safe over/under for MKDS + MKWii would be about 45m. (18m DS, 27m Wii).

So in a fairly safe scenario, the last 2 entries of MK would outsell the first 4 by 50%, despite the fact that the first 4 averaged 7.76m units apiece, high enough to rank among the top 50 most popular games of all time. Try to wrap your head around that.

One thing forgotten here is the XB version of GTA:San Andreas... which released with (I believe) 4 months to spare of the full first year of GTA:SA.

Of course the game didn't sell so well on the XB, less than 2 million.... and not all of that 2 million will have been the first 4 months (in fact given the game had been out on PS2 for 8 months it wouldn't have been a "50% sales in first week" type game either) so arguably for the first 4 months it probably didn't sell much more than 1 million, and certainly not more than 1.5 million..... a figure which Mario Kart Wii will easily pass before April.