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Forums - Sales - The Prediction Warehouse Thread

I intend for this thread to be a "warehouse" for people to keep their predictions in if they wish, basically just make a post here with a prediction for whatever you wish, then bookmark the post so you can easily find your way back here to see your prediction, or to add a further prediction (preferably into the same post)

For example, I am going to hold the first post after this OP for myself, and I will use that single post to add in any predictions I make when I do so, rather than making them in threads that I then forget about and have no idea how to get back to them. Thus that single post can become a storage place for my predictions, anyone who makes excessive numbers of predictions may wish to have more than 1 post for storage for ease of use

I won't go into anything about how people can edit their own predictions, but we could have a post quoting system, where if you wish for a particular prediction to be kept as proof that you have not edited it either ask someone else, or me and we can quote it as proof.... that sort of thing is your own choice though. Also predictions you want "proofed" you might want to put in seperate posts as you would be editing your main storage post with other new predictions... but that also is not essential because the "proofed" parts would be visible just the same in the quoted post.

I can keep any posts to quote/proof in the post after the OP, and my predictions will go in the second.

---

Or if no one cares about this I will just use this thread for my own storage



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End of 2008 predictions made through 2008.

Prediction for LTD end of 2008 (made in January 2008)
DS: 93 million
Wii: 46 million
PSP: 39 million
360: 23 million
PS3 19 million

Updated prediction (May 2008)
DS: 89 million
Wii: 44 million
PSP: 41 million
360: 24 million
PS3: 21 million

Updated prediction (Sept 2008)
DS: 94 million
Wii: 45 million
PSP: 44 million
360: 25 million
PS3: 21 million



TWRoOs predictions.

(11th August 2008)
(See here for original post: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=37495&start=0 )

Wii Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 100 140-155 200?
Japan 18 20-25 30
Americas 45 65-70 85
Others 37 55-60 85
PS3
Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 40
50-60 85
Japan 4 5-7 8
Americas 14 16-19 32
Others 22 29-34 45
X360
Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 40 45-55 65
Japan 1 1-1.5 2
Americas 25 29-35.5 42
Others 14 15-18 21

----

DS Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 125 150-165 200?
Japan 27 30-35 35
America 43 50-55 65
Others 55 70-75 100
PSP Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 55 60-70 80
Japan 15 16-19 21
America 20 23-26 30
Others 20 21-25 29

(23rd December 2008)
End of 2009 sales:

Wii - 77 million
360 - 37 million
PS3 - 31 million

(23rd December 2008)
Wii will reach 53% marketshare by the end of 2009

(16th February 2009) New version of the above "end of gen" chart.

Wii Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 105 150-165 200?
Japan 16 18-22 25
Americas 50 70-76 90
Others 39 62-67 85
PS3
Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 40
45-55 75
Japan 4 4-6 8
Americas 14 15-17 27
Others 22 26-32 40
X360
Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 50 50-60 70
Japan 1 1-1.5 2
Americas 30 30-36.5 44
Others 19 19-22 24
DS Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 135 160-175 200?
Japan 30 31-34 35
Americas 47 57-62 65
Others 58 72-79 100
PSP Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 65 70-80 90
Japan 15 16-19 21
Americas 25 26-29 33
Others 25 28-32 36

(8th August 2009) New version of the above "end of gen" chart.

Wii Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 105 140-155 200?
Japan 16 17-21 25
Americas 50 65-71 90
Others 39 58-63 85
PS3
Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 40
45-55 75
Japan 4 4-6 8
Americas 14 15-17 27
Others 22 26-32 40
X360
Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 50 50-60 70
Japan 1 1-1.5 2
Americas 30 30-36.5 44
Others 19 19-22 24
DS Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 135 160-175 200?
Japan 30 31-34 35
Americas 47 57-62 65
Others 58 72-79 100
PSP Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 65 75-85 90
Japan 15 17-20 21
Americas 25 28-31 33
Others 25 30-34 36

 

 



Pinball Hall of Fame: The Williams Collection to sell 1m units <- I may be high on my prediction due to a downward adjustment to the data after I made the prediction. To meet point 1, I need 100k units in 9 weeks. Luckily, it has been above 10k, for the last 4 weeks, and has hit 20k in one week so far.




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)

You really think PS3 will outsell 360 in others TWRoO?

I just can't see it right now, or in the future.



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Ok, an additional post for me to store other peoples hilarious predictions in.

Leo-J

End of 2009 predictions(started december 20th 2008)

Wii- 58-70million

PS3(depends on price) 29-35million

Xbox 360- 32-37million

 

(the funny thing being the immense range he has given, especially for the Wii, and even then the Wii will pass his high end figure)

Diomedes

PS3: I think it can get to 35 million by end 2009 and 51 end of 2010.

(seperate prediction also for PS3, during 2009)
11-12 million without cut.
15-16 with cut .

 

Mike B

I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009. By the end of 2012 about 80 million sales. I do expect the PS3 to stay commercially available for much longer though, so by the end of 2016 about 140 million (triple the amount of 360s I anticipate for the long run).

Of course there are endless yet unknown factors. But I certainly expect the PS3 to go well beyond 100 million for the long run.


Holy crap it's a goldmine of Crazzy predictions:

Crazzyman

1. HW for PS3: 42-45 mln., X360: 35-38 mln., Wii: 65-70 mln., PSP: 65-70 mln., DS: 125-127 mln. =)
2. Pricecut will be only in Autumn OR slim version release with new price.
3. PS3 will be ahead of x360 atleast by 7 mln. by the end of 2009.
4. FFXIII will sell over 1.5-2 mln. on first week in Japan and reach 3 mln. by the end of 2009.
5. GT5 will sell over 5 mln. (IF released WW) by the end of 2009.
6. MGS4 will reach 4.5-5 mln. by the end of 2009.
7. LBP will reach over 5 mln. by the end of 2009.
8. KZ2 will sell atleast 1-2 mln. first month and reach over 5 mln. by the end of the year.
9. PSP will reach 65-70 mln. (probably will have a pricecut) by the end of 2009.
10. More(A LOT, mostly Japan) 3rd party PS3 exclusives will be annnounced.
11. Uncharted 2 will reach over 2.5-3 mln. by the end of 2009.
12. Heavy Rain to sell over 1 mln. by the end of 2009.
13. FFXIII to be released in NA by the end of 2009. Sell atleast 2 times more on PS3, then on x360 in NA.
14. RE5 sells better on PS3 by the end of 2009.
15. WKC to reach around 2 mln. by the end of 2009.
16. Infamous to reach atleast 2-2.5 mln. by the end of 2009.
17. Quantum theory - atleast 1 mln. by the end of 2009, DS - 500k.
18. KH3 announced for PS360(or atleast for PS3) on TGS09.
19. Kojima to announce new PS3 exclusive on TGS09.
20. Ico 3 and God of War 3 to be released by the end of 2009 or early 2010. 1 and 2 mln. in first 10 weeks.
21. SO4 and ToV to be announced for PS3.

Tremble: made 4th Feb 2009

- High popular games coming to HD console: RE5, SFIV, KZ2, Infamous, Halo wars, FFXIII demo and yakuza, just to name a few. No wii game could match that.

- PS3 will increase its sales in japan: 2008's been a low year for the PS3, 2009 should be much better. Yakuza 3, FFXIII and GT5 will sell tons of consoles.

- Price: wii has always been afordable, a price cut wouldn't have a big impact. The PS3 and the 360 Elite, on the other hand, could get a big boost if there were a price cut, those consoles/sku are still expensive.

- No zelda, mario or metroid this year: last year wiifit, SSMB and MK gave the console a huge boost. There's still no zelda/mario/metroid game announced for this year.

- Economic crisis: yes, once again, THE crisis! Will probably hit more the wii than the other two.

My prediction: Wii will never reach the 50% mark, could even be below 40% by the end of this year.