I think xbox is on the beginning edge of the line but going up the line as far as PS2 has went, lots of things will need to occur.

Few million more in the xbox to PS3 gap (over 10+ mill gap will get them up the line even more) and an abandonment by developers of the PS3. I don't think that will happen but I think there is still a slim chance.

Only one of those said games is made by an independant studio. Kinda hurts your argument no?

@OP: I think it's going to take a variety of market factors: Increased install base (which is doing well for the X360, especially in Europe), and a better package deal for the development of games (such as better SDKs which can churn out cheaper software).

One of the forgotten factors in this is XNA/Arcade development, which sees very low costs of development...Especially in the XNA field. XNA is one of the things, I think, that can help define future progress of how hardware manufacturers and software producers can merge. The fact is that in 4 weeks, Community Games put out more exclusive titles than an entire year's worth of WiiWare titles, Virtual Console games, or PSN games. XBLA + CG saw more titles this year than all 3 services, combined. That's something pretty notable, no?

Depends on how you qualify market share.

Both the PS3 and 360 are losing market share to the Wii, and I have long argued that the Wii is a direct competitor with the other two consoles, as they compete for shelf space, gamer dollars and times, and developer investment.

That said, once a developer has chosen to invest in an HD game, the market shrinks to the PS3 and 360. This isn't like last generation where the capabilities and controllers of all 3 systems were similar and ports relatively easy. Once the decision is made to make a game HD, the developer/publisher (not sure which makes the call) has a choice of 360, PS3 or both, and in this context, the 360 is gaining market share over the PS3. Therefore, hypothetically speaking, it is possible for the 360 to both lose market share and, at some point, gain exclusives because it isn't dropping as fast as the PS3 (or vice versa, were fortunes to again reverse themselves).

But that's hypothetical. Let's talk practical.

Last gen, developers could toss multiplat development because the PS2 had five times the sales of the XBox and GameCube. Tossing a game to the back benchers wasn't going to increase the potential market for their game very much, especially when you subtract the number of GCN and XB gamers who ALSO owned a PS2 (which I suspect was substantial).

This is not going to be the case this time. Barring some unbelievable turn of events, neither the PS3 or 360 is going anywhere. Currently they are dividing up the HD market 60-40. It's hard to see how this changes dramatically. If the PS3 can't improve, the 360 will move it to 70-30 in a couple of years, and if the PS3's fortunes turn around, it will still take years just to get to 50-50. In either case, both consoles represent too large a market for most developers to ignore, especially given the cost of development.

What has to strike some fear in the hearts of HD console owners is the Wii's success. It nearly equals the combined 360/PS3 userbase, and next year could very well move another 30 million units. With the lower development costs and shorter turn around time, Wii games are going to represent a much safer investment for a lot of companies, especially the smaller ones, and that advantage is only going to increase over time.

The answer is absoluely YES. The 360 will get significantly more titles than the PS3. But in a somewhat disappointing way.

Almost all the 4rd party AAA titles will ship on both platforms. No third party should ignore 40% of the HD market after putting in 10s of millions of dollars in investment into the game and buying into the Unreal Engine multi-plat dev platform.

But three classes of titles will be skipping the PS3 regularly:

1. The PC based titles:

Titles that have their roots in the PC architecture will migrate readily to the 360 architecture but will find it very hard to adapt to the PS3 format. The PS3 is just too different. With reasonable success of some RTS games on the 360 I think we'll start seeing more and more PC titles released in PC-360 formats but skipping the PS3.

2. B titles

Titles with limited budget guidelines and quick release schedule will go with a single platform and the 360 will win by deafult here. These titles will not be willing to pay Epic royalites and will happily work directly with XNA or DirectX of the 360. The developement is quicker, there is only one platform to test with and the product is optimized for the full capacity of the console. If they have done a good job or have a new creative idea , they may get Microsoft to pay for some of that (See Lips or You'r in the Movies).

You may think you don't care too much about B titles but there is a real market for them. People are buying them and paying good money. None of them is a million seller but in an aggregate they make up a very significant volume.

3. Community games

I don't think people here realize yet the potential impact of XNA on the gaming market. Expect to see hundreds of games per year released through the XNA channel. In 2009 more community games will be released on Xbox live than full budget titles released in retail. Like B titles, most will sell very modestly. But some will become major hits. See Braid for example.

All together, I expect that in 2009 the sheer volume of titles released for the 360 and not showing up on the PS3 will be migher than the titles showing up on the PS3 (exluding PS1/PS2 and XBOX releases). And I am willing to take bets on it.

I look at it like this:

The PS3 currently represents over 40% of the HD market. Even with current sales trends, PS3 isn't likely to slip below 33% of the HD userbase. If you're making an HD game, porting to PS3 would have to increase project cost by 50% before the price of porting to PS3 exceeds the increase in potential buyers of your product.

Granted, there's going to be some overlap of people who own both a 360 and a PS3, but I doubt that the cost of porting to the PS3 would increase cost anywhere near 50%.

Perhaps we should look at instal base per region as opposed to World Wide. Games are more often developed with specific regions in mind (at least west vs. Japan, that is). The 360's largest attraction from a developer's stand point is it's high North American marketshare, and it's European sales have climbed substantially of late. If you're developing an FPS or more American aimed game, you're going to be looking at that 360 vs. PS3 userbase and seeing a far more attractive situation 360 side.

No matter how big the 60's userbase becomes, the userbase of the PS3 and 360 combined will always be larger. And if it's relatively easy and financially manageable to port a game over to PS3 or vice versa, developers'll do that.

Its hard to say, there have been a lot of compelling arguments both ways really. However it will be cheaper for Microsoft to open their cheque-book now they also have a compelling userbase advantage.

Like others have stated I don't see many major titles going exclusive*, but I do think we'll see more mid-level and niche titles exclusive to the 360. Not just because of market share, but also ease of development and attach rate.

*Unless you consider PC/360 games an exclusive (re Left4Dead).

I doubt it'll ever happen. When the PS2 dominated the market, it owned seventy percent of the market (correct me if I'm wrong). To think that the 360 would ever get the same treatment is ludacris since it barely owns thirty percent of the market. So yeah, I think devs will continue to pursue Multi-platform development since cost to make high definition software is expensive.