How about DQX? I say 2 million minimum, 3m max opening week.

I'd say it should break 1 million easy. Anything above 1.5 million though I find extremely unlikely. Final Fantasy has been on a bit of a downward spiral for opening weeks in Japan ever since FFVIII. It still sells like mad of course but not as good as the previous iteration. How big FFvXIII will be is the question I have. FFX-2 seemed to stay inline with what a full FF game would get on release. It seems the FF spin-offs can have just as much power as the main games in Japan which is very odd to me.

selling to over 50 percent of owners in first week?  I don't know about that... Dragon Quest is even bigger than Final Fantasy anyway in Japan...

Gnizmo, Versus is not a spin off, do you know what a spin off if? Watch the latest trailer for FF Versus, I dont see any characters from FFXIII, do you?

Yes we all know the PS3 will not sell any more units until FFXIII releases....

it wont sell 1 million unit on it's first week the game isn't big enough to do it... I'd give you the benefit of the doubt if this was a FF7 remake, but otherwise it's not going to happen

Yes and after it gets 40 out of 40 from Famitsu, it will.

 I can list a host of games from SE alone that would be considered spin-offs that do not include any previous main characters from the series. All the non-remakes of Dragon Quest on the DS are considered spin-offs and yet do not include any old characters to my knowledge. Same goes for Dragon Quest for the Wii, and Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles for the GameCube originally (although it has evolved into a full franchise now). This is splitting hairs though.

You know something I dont, englighten me on why FFXIII wont hit 1 million. Will be very intersting to see what answer you have.

 Super Smash Brothers Melee sold to almost 100% of GameCube owners first week in Japan. Hardcore gamers come out in force for their big games in Japan.