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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official VGC Thread of Year End 2009 Predictions

mrstickball on 19 December 2008

Hi all,

I know some have done these once in awhile, but I thought it'd be good to begin the processes, with 2 weeks left in 08, to prepare for 09 predictions. We had a major thread last year that had over 100 predictions in 08. It was created in mid-December, which is where I originated my predictions for 08. Tons of 'em were wrong...But the least plausible - the 27m X360 prediction was one of the highest made on VGC, but is also the one closest to what the X360 sold. Of course, everything was also horribly wrong.

So let's go into 09 with a real prediction thread - I'm going to sticky this one. Please make your predictions, and I'll see if I can't add them to the main list of predictions. Why? So no one can stealth edit them later on to avoid looking foolish. I've been honest with my bad predictions (such as the Wii at 34.5m by the end of this year...A prediction I regretted by March). This will be the ultimate crow-eating thread. But I think it'll be a lot of fun.

Currently, as of December 13th and 14th, console sales stand at:

Wii: 42.00 Million (46.00 Million projected by the end of the year)

Xbox 360: 25.59 Million (27.5 Million projected by the end of the year)

Playstation 3: 18.30 Million (19.5 Million projected by the end of the year)

 

And the Handhelds stand at:

NDS: 92.47 Million (97.50 Million projected by the end of the year)

PSP: 41.62 Million (43.25 Million projected by the end of the year)

/\ These are my personal projections, FYI. Take them as you will or wont.

 

The rules are simple:

  • Predict Life to Date hardware sales to consumers by the end of December, 2009.
  • All versions are to be included (DSL, DSI, X360 Slim, X360 Normal, Wii, PS3, ect), as it's unlikely we're going to see a revision so different that it'd require ioi to track it as a unique item.

Also, if there are any major games you'd like to predict EOY 09 sales for.......Feel free to do it (my personal suggestion is Dragon Quest IX).

Now the massive table that'll be updated:

Enjoy!

 

<!-- BODY,DIV,TABLE,THEAD,TBODY,TFOOT,TR,TH,TD,P { font-family:"Arial"; font-size:x-small } -->

Fanboy: Nintendo DS Nintendo Wii Xbox 360 Playstation Portable Playstation 3
Mrstickball 128,100,000 79,500,000 42,600,000 54,950,000 32,750,000
Passanger57 128,000,000 68,000,000 41,000,000 55,000,000 30,000,000
Neos 125,000,000 73,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 33,000,000
Smashchu2
72,000,000


Godemperor 135,000,000 85,000,000 41,000,000 55,000,000 31,000,000
FaRmLaNd 127,500,000 79,500,000 42,550,000 54,750,000 31,500,000
seece
80,000,000 39,500,000
28,500,000
Kantor 119,000,000 67,000,000 39,000,000 54,000,000 34,000,000
haxxiy 115,000,000 75,000,000 38,000,000 57,000,000 34,000,000
puffy 125,000,000 74,000,000 38,000,000 53,000,000 29,000,000
goddog
78,000,000 38,750,000
29,500,000
Skeeuk

40,000,000
35,000,000
numonex 125,000,000 78,000,000 40,000,000 55,000,000 32,000,000
Cueil
75,000,000 ~40,000,000
30,000,000
Smcc1887 120,000,000 63,000,000 37,200,000 53,000,000 33,900,000
kirby007 129,600,000 76,500,000 42,000,000 54,300,000 31,500,000
DmeisterJ 124,000,000 78,500,000 40,000,000 54,500,000 32,500,000
TheSource 132,500,000 80,000,000 38,500,000 53,500,000 31,000,000
NJ5
79,500,000 40,500,000
29,000,000
KillerMan 120,500,000 72,000,000 37,000,000 55,700,000 31,500,000
skeezer 122,500,000 72,100,000 38,500,000 57,800,000 34,200,000
javierdacosta 125,000,000 69,000,000 43,000,000 56,000,000 29,000,000
WiiStation360 132,000,000 82,000,000 41,000,000 57,000,000 33,000,000
Squilliam
80,000,000 42,000,000
30,000,000
Madskillz 125,000,000 59,000,000 39,000,000 60,000,000 27,000,000
Killergran 127,000,000 75,000,000 38,500,000 55,000,000 30,500,000
Rolstoppable 128,000,000 77,000,000 38,000,000 54,000,000 31,000,000
Infamy 134,000,000 79,000,000 42,500,000 54,000,000 31,500,000
dravenmanson 128,000,000 75,000,000 39,000,000 55,000,000 35,000,000
zexen_lowe 122,000,000 74,000,000 38,000,000 55,000,000 32,500,000
oliist 133,200,000 82,150,000 43,100,000 61,000,000 34,350,000
RacCoOnErOuS 135,000,000 77,000,000 45,000,000 60,000,000 33,000,000
Branko2166 122,000,000 74,000,000 38,000,000 56,000,000 34,000,000
Megaman2 135,000,000 75,000,000 35,000,000 112,000,000 43,000,000
Ender
76,000,000 37,500,000
28,000,000
The Lurker 134,000,000 83,000,000 40,000,000 48,000,000 24,000,000







127,032,143 77,727,941 39,814,706 57,517,857 32,638,235

 

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Around the Network
Neos on 19 December 2008

Wii : 73 million
X360 : 40 million
Ps3 : 33 million
NDS : 125 million
PSP : 60 million



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!

 

Passenger57 on 19 December 2008

Wii : 68 million
X360 : 41 million
Ps3 : 30 million
NDS : 128 million
PSP : 55 million




 

Solid_Raiden on 19 December 2008
Neos said:
Wii : 46 million
X360 : 27.5 million
Ps3 : 20 million
NDS : 98 million
PSP : 43.5 million

 

 This is for 2009, not 2008...




PS3 Trophies

 

 

Neos on 19 December 2008
Solid_Raiden said:
Neos said:
Wii : 46 million
X360 : 27.5 million
Ps3 : 20 million
NDS : 98 million
PSP : 43.5 million

 

 This is for 2009, not 2008...

fixed =P, its early here!

 



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!

 

Around the Network
Smashchu2 on 19 December 2008

I wont do all of them now (sorry) but I'm goign to say Wii at 72 million.



godemperor on 19 December 2008

Wii : 80 million
X360 : 42 million
Ps3 : 30 million(for no price cut)
NDS : 125 million
PSP : 52 million



BengaBenga on 19 December 2008

Placeholder.



FaRmLaNd on 19 December 2008

I'll have a think about it and then add my predictions.

Nintendo DS = 127,500,000

Nintendo Wii = 79,500,000

xbox 360 = 42,550,000

psp = 54,750,000

ps3 = 31,500,000



Seece on 19 December 2008

360

The 360 will have a strong start to the year as oppose to ealier this year and the "shortages", the benefit of the recent price drop is even if Sony slash the price of the PS3 its sales should hold, its at a mass market price something the PS3 won't be at next year.  I expect Microsoft to have a lot more up their sleeves this year, "breaking the bank at E3?" I predict 39.5 million.

PS3

This can vary widely as it depends on a price cut, I am no expert and won't pretend to be when it comes to the recession and the credit crunch but from MPOV I don't think things will turn around in a year, they should (hopefully) get better but it won't happen over night, so I expect the exchange rate to still hurt Sony bad. Sony will be asking its shareholders, "Price cut to target lagging sales, no profit will be made or weather the storm" I don't think Sony will cut the price of the PS3, if they do it will be late 09 and only $50, and thats if its a WW pricecut, it may well just be a certain region. I predict 28.5 million.

Wii

I predict 80 million.