I Hope they can afford option 1, but 3 seems most likely

"Winning" second place is pointless if they lose money doing it. Sony need to balance increasing sales with making money.

There are two factors that will contribute heavily to Sony sales in 09. Price cuts and exclusive games.

The price cuts will be dictated by the economy (exchange rate), and the ability to reduce PS3 production costs. The days of Sony taking a huge loss per console are officially over.

I do not see a $100 price cut in the spring (option #1) as being possible, unless the economy has a dramatic turn-around, and they can reduce hardware production costs a lot in the next few months.

A smaller price drop (Option #2) is most likely. It also gives them flexibility to work on reducing costs more by the fall and waiting out the economy, without losing too much market share.

Waiting 10 months (Option #3) for any price drop will be hard on Sony. Both the Wii and 360 are hitting their peak sales, and Sony will be left too far behind. Even with great games coming out, $400 is still too much for most people.

The PS3 can sell well at a higher price than the Wii or 360. The first half of 08 proved that. It cannot continue to sell well at $400. Sony know this.

Games are just as important as price cuts. Games like KZ2, GT5, FFXIII (Japan), GoW3 will help move consoles. Sony needs to make sure that these games come out in 09.

what about no pricecut, and MS will doing the same thing, now MS just counter sony moves by doing price cut too.

What about only a 50$ cut in 2009.
I would guess for this to come in spring, and not necessary give the PS3 another pricecut in '09.
I honestly don't see why everyone sees a 100$ cut likely for the PS3

so microsoft can't drop the price but sony can, is the new strategy?

I think option 1 would perhaps seem a bit too desperate - I envisage option 3.

With a major push on bundles to boot to give what appears to be a 'larger' discount

You should read my sig.

lol.

With multiple SKUs of the PS3, its possible that a ~$70 cut could happen on the low-end SKU ($329.99), and a $100 cut on the high-end ($399.99). Its been stated before that the only difference between the 80GB and 160GB models is the HDD, and the cost-to-make difference for those amounts to a whopping $3 USD.

Its in Sony's best interest (just like MS) to sell the more expensive SKUs.  

MS is not going to cut the price on the Arcade next year.  And... I'm gonna call it -- Elite model is gone for good after the holidays.  MS might cut the price of the Pro SKU by a small amount, next holiday season.

 Why people find this unlikely is beyond me.  Wasnt the PS2 $149 in NA 4 years after release. I suppose Sony was desparate.  I would expect that MS will drop prices and keep the Arcade 50% of the cheapest PS3 available next fall. MS really wont worry about any improvements the PS3 makes between March and August.