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Forums - Sony Discussion - The Yen is Killing Sony - Is a PS3 Price Cut Even Possible for 2009??

"These people are disappointed and enraged. They are out for blood. And they will get it."

Analysts don't care, no nothing of internal plans and basically speculate, true its educated speculation. Investors will have been well informed and always have the opportunity to pull out. As for the press, i don't really have to say i think about that do i? Sony will have a long term plan for the PS3. OK with the climate as it is, restructuring is a must and has been done. Yes Sony are hurting but lets wait until all the figures for Q3 and 4 are out and accessible for all 3 companies before shouting Sony are screwed.



 

 assumption is the mother of all f**k ups 

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Cheebee said:
Yup, things are going bad for Sony.. but we all knew that, didn't we. :s

Maybe, it doesn't seem to stop people from proclaiming a PS3 price cut in Early 2009...

 



Proud Member of GAIBoWS (Gamers Against Irrational Bans of Weezy & Squilliam)

                   

NJ5 said:
@alephnull: Thanks for your reply. The scenario you listed at 3) seems to be happening, and apparently the analysts' consensus is that the US dollar will weaken in the next few years.

Basically we may see a race between countries to devalue their own currencies... So far the USA is looking quite strong in this race, and European countries seem to be following the same measures.

 

I think in the long term you are correct, or at least you were up until the begining of month. It was more than aparent that Japan and China had agreed to allow their currency's to appreciate slowly to help the US reduce it's current account deficit and take some of the pressure off of the euro, however a few weeks ago China broke ranks as it's economy has started to teeter. Unfortunately for Japan the collapse of the "carry trade" which had various funds borrowing massive amounts of yen (thanks to deflation their interest rates have hovered near 0 for awhile) which they then put into sound investments such as mortgage back securities in other parts of the world which were at the time yielding a much higher return than anything in financially boring Japan. It is the scale and speed of this collapse which is moving the currency markets so quickly at the moment and thus far seems as if it has caught the BofJ off guard.

However, the faster the yen appreciates, the more likely a massive emergency intervention becomes, consequentially a violent correction in the other direction. If you can find some charts of yen versus the dollar from 2003/2004 you will see what I mean, currecy interventions are blunt instruments at best. No matter how you look at it though, this kind of volatility is not good for anyone.

 



NJ5 said:

The analysts continue their pounding:

Sony downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse . Credit Suisse downgrades SNE to Underperform from Neutral saying Sony has been slow to react to the current crisis, and they believe fundamental changes to its business structure are necessary, not only reducing headcount. Unless Sony shifts development costs to software and cuts capex in the electronics business to around 50% of the current level, moving to an "asset light" structure by using EMS more efficiently and rapidly establishes a platform as a top company in the content and hardware field, the firm believes the gap with Apple and Nintendo will widen further, leading to continued erosion of enterprise value.

(capex = capital expenditure)

Source

 

 

The analysts have been bouncing back and forth between neutral and sell the last few months. All I can say is that I bought 480 shares after Sony's PE dropped below 7 and have managed to lock in a respectable 10%, which outperformed the market. Although admittedly, I will probably profit take even if my sell triggers aren't hit in the next few days and I would have been better off with Nintendo (however it's overvalued and OTC so it won't work with my triggers).

Microsoft OTOH has been doing less well :)



DMeisterJ said:
amirnetz said:
Sony's next financial reports are going to be pivotal to the company's strategic direction.

The gaming division is making only 13% of Sony's revenue but for the last two years it is consistently dragging down the company's profict by over 50% . (NJ5 will have the exact numbers).

The Playstation brand had transitioned from being the flagship brand for the company and instead became the symbol of everything that went wrong with Sony. The business performance of the gaming division is highly visible and the PS3 had become the whipping boy for the press, analysts and investors. Most of them are not playing any games.

One more disasterous quarter in the gaming division, perhaps two, and Sony's management will be pushed to take drastic measures. With this economy and the kind of pressure it is under, anything is possible. Anything.

 

Like cancelling the PS3, amirite?

>_>

PS3 may die earlly 2010 witha  firesale getting rid of extra units. Thats my current prediction anyway.