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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox 360 could hit 28 Million at years end if it follows last years trends

gebx on 11 December 2008
mrstickball said:
Squilliam said:

I just edited my post changing 400k to 210k to reflect these numbers. Its interesting that we both wrote pretty similar posts at the same time, you just type faster!

But WOW, those are pretty damning numbers right there. Could we be looking at a lead of 10,000,000 before the start of the financial year if Sony doesn't make deep cuts to the price of the PS3? I can almost see the PS3 dropping below 20% market share worldwide considering the Wii is currently ripping apart sales records left/right and center and the Xbox 360 is currently holding its own market share steady at 30%.

 

I think 10,000,000 is a lock if Sony doesn't drop the price before the end of their financial year (isn't it at the end of March, 2009?).

Here's my take on what we're going to see with the gap between now, and March (because I don't see the PS3 dropping before late Mar):

Wk. Ending: X360 Playstation 3 Margin Total
12/07/08 645,749 349,949 295,800 7,275,800
12/14/08 774,899 419,939 354,960 7,630,760
12/21/08 929,879 503,927 425,952 8,056,712
12/28/08 1,115,854 604,712 511,142 8,567,854
01/04/09 669,513 362,827 306,685 8,874,540
January 1,000,000 550,000 450,000 9,324,540
February 850,000 500,000 350,000 9,674,540
March 950,000 450,000 500,000 10,174,540

That'd put it just above 10 million, but the key is that I'm showing the PS3 to have a whopping 1.5m consoles sold in January-March, which may be high.

 

 

Although I think those numbers are optimistic for the 360, the lead will grow to between 9.5 - 10 million by end of March 09 with these current prices.

Which would guarantee the lead for three or more years!



Proud Member of GAIBoWS (Gamers Against Irrational Bans of Weezy & Squilliam)

                   

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mrstickball on 11 December 2008

Gebx -

The December numbers are based on a very simple methodology of PW * 1.2 (prev week by 1.2) up till the 28th, then down 40% the next week. I manually input the Jan-Mar numbers.

For Jan-Mar, I gave the PS3 higher numbers than the X360 had in the same timeframe, which may be high.

So in the case of Jan-Mar, there may be discrepancy, but there's very little chance the X360 won't have a 8.5m lead come January 4th.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.