Xbox 360 could hit 28 Million at years end if it follows last years trends

[gebx]

mrstickball said:

Squilliam said:

I just edited my post changing 400k to 210k to reflect these numbers. Its interesting that we both wrote pretty similar posts at the same time, you just type faster!

But WOW, those are pretty damning numbers right there. Could we be looking at a lead of 10,000,000 before the start of the financial year if Sony doesn't make deep cuts to the price of the PS3? I can almost see the PS3 dropping below 20% market share worldwide considering the Wii is currently ripping apart sales records left/right and center and the Xbox 360 is currently holding its own market share steady at 30%.

 

I think 10,000,000 is a lock if Sony doesn't drop the price before the end of their financial year (isn't it at the end of March, 2009?).

Here's my take on what we're going to see with the gap between now, and March (because I don't see the PS3 dropping before late Mar):

Wk. Ending:	X360	Playstation 3	Margin	Total
12/07/08	645,749	349,949	295,800	7,275,800
12/14/08	774,899	419,939	354,960	7,630,760
12/21/08	929,879	503,927	425,952	8,056,712
12/28/08	1,115,854	604,712	511,142	8,567,854
01/04/09	669,513	362,827	306,685	8,874,540
January	1,000,000	550,000	450,000	9,324,540
February	850,000	500,000	350,000	9,674,540
March	950,000	450,000	500,000	10,174,540

That'd put it just above 10 million, but the key is that I'm showing the PS3 to have a whopping 1.5m consoles sold in January-March, which may be high.

 

 

Although I think those numbers are optimistic for the 360, the lead will grow to between 9.5 - 10 million by end of March 09 with these current prices.

Which would guarantee the lead for three or more years!