By the end of 2008 the gap will be over 8 million consoles in favour of XBox 360. The gap will widen in 2009 unless drastic changes are implemented by Sony or highly unlikely MS abandons the X360.
Sales lead of over 10 million in favour of XBox 360 by Xmas 2009. No way back for PS3 and the XBox 360 will be guaranteed second place - Silver Cup for this console generation. The Wii will be a run away winner with well over 50% market share by Xmas 2009. Wii market share could be approaching 55% by end of 2009.
i think it will be about 8,000,000+ gap at the end of 2008 but at the end of the Gen it will be much closer within 2 million consoles either way. The PS3 could still take 2nd
Long Live SHIO!
| Tyrannical said: Console sales are dead the first few months of the year, you can't regain lost holiday sales ground then. I bet consoles will sell more in any single week in December then the single month total for Jan-Mar. |
Correct, I went to the shop this week to get some games (Left4dead for me and LBP for the little cousins 
), and they were selling a lot of consoles.
FYI, while I was standing in the lines to pay, I noticed people buying one LBP-bundle, one 360-elite, one 360-arcade and one 360-Pro.
Evan Wells (Uncharted 2): I think the differences that you see between any two games has much more to do with the developer than whether it’s on the Xbox or PS3.
| mrstickball said: Dirty, the lead will be bigger than 8.5 by the time that Sony drops the price. We're looking at 8.5-9.0 by the end of the year + whatever comes up in January till Sony drops the price. It's unlikely that the PS3 will lead the X360 on any given week till they drop the price. The only X factor would be the KZ2 launch, which may get it close, but that's likely only to be a blip on the radar. And having said that, the PS3 outsold the X360 by 600,000 units - 200k a month, in January through March this year (08), but it's lead on the X360 right after it's price cut are nowhere near what the X360 is doing to the PS3 now (Nov-Dec's cume for the PS3 in 2007 had it 210,000 units above the X360. The X360 managed that lead this past week alone.) Realistically, we're looking at a 10,000,000+ gap for Sony to overcome by March, should it decide to drop the price. Then, if they do, we assume that it's going to sell some sort of gaudy numbers that would make the X360 lose a lot of ground, but that's questionable. The X360 is selling far more consoles at the $200-300 pricepoint than the PS3 did at it's $400 pricepoint. So having said all of that, unless Sony gets major momentum in 2009, the gap will be 10m, and be nearly impossible for the PS3 to whittle away in any sort of relevancy. The earliest date that the PS3 could overtake the X360...IF it ever did, would be late 2011 - and by then, the X360 successor would be out, and Sony would have lost so much cash to beat the X360 for 2nd place, it'd be the litmus test of what a Pyrrhic victory is. |
I have got a lot of respect for you, because you prdeicted Xbox360 > Wii in Japan and you were right.
But I really don't see the XBox360 in a more than 8 million lead at the end of the year. But I do agree the Xbox360 will get another million next year before Sony cut the price.
So we predict more or less the same, just the gap at the end of the year is where we disagree.
Your prediction:
my prediction
We will see who made the better shot.
Imagine not having GamePass on your console...
The gap will be at least 10 million before a PS3 pricecut. Sony won't fix that anymore, it's too late for that.
Admit it, the results are in. Wii 1st, 360 2nd and PS3 comes 3rd.
Sony will drop the price on september-november
but BEFORE, if the actual trend is kept then the gap will continue to increase
10M is easly possible to my eyes before Ps3 price cut
(we are already something like 7M !!)
the probleme we dont know by how much the Xbox360/Ps3 sales will drop after holidays ...
Time to Work !
| libellule said: Sony will drop the price on september-november but BEFORE, if the actual trend is kept then the gap will continue to increase 10M is easly possible to my eyes before Ps3 price cut (we are already something like 7M !!) the probleme we dont know by how much the Xbox360/Ps3 sales will drop after holidays ... |
10M is not only easily possible, but vastly under what it could/should be if Sony waited that long.
The Playstation 3 beat the X360 out by a gap of 1.5 million consoles from January through July this year. Problem was/is, that the PS3 only beat the X360 out by 210,000 units in the November-December tracking period. Currently, the X360 is beating out the PS3 by 1.1 million units in the same period, with another 4 weeks to go.
What does that mean? The gap in 2009 between the X360 and PS3 should be a good deal larger than it was for the PS3 beating the X360 this year. If that's the case (and it should be), the X360 should widen the gap 2x faster, or more....So 3 million, maybe, by August.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
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