You guys take this stuff way too seriously. Its fun to give props to folks who predict correctly, but knocking people for predicting wrong and having different ideas to throw into the mix... that's messed up and wrong.

You guys have issues.

Okay I will admit I will enjoy the "enjoy your crow, much?" posts I'll put here when the time comes, its true, but I don't expect any less from you guys, and my awesome rightness won't perpetuate itself past this thread, I promise. ;)

It's not the predictions that we knock, it's the flawed logic not backed up by any facts. Kind of like you're prediction of the Wii falling over 30% in others.

I think the Wii could fall 25-30% in the US this week. But others should pick up some of the slack. Maybe 10% overall drop this week.

Wait... are you saying that you think that relying upon historical numbers, which are derived from sales in completely different economic situations, when there's a severe economic downturn, worldwide, is "flawless logic"?  You believe that, since there were record turnouts, for a HUGE sales (i.e. discounted prices.. something of a draw, usually) week, for the most inexpensive consoles on the market, you believe that the general populace will continue to spend, spend, spend for the entire Holiday season?

In response to a severe economic crisis, do you believe that the general population will (a) shop for discounts, like those found during a sales period, or (b) just spend their money whenever they see the opportunity?

Nope, I'm saying you've given no reason for the Wii to drop from last week to this week in others. Others does not have Black Friday, so there is no reason for sales to drop. So explain to me the logic as to why sales should drop in others.

I can't explain that one... it confounds me.  I see NA sales dropping, and there's an odd correlation between the numbers which I cannot explain, but appears to happen in any case.  By the same logic, you cannot explain last week's jump in Others, either... can you?  Only by correlation?  Last years numbers were largely driven by supply and demand.  Nintendo had to airlift shipments in to meet the demand in late December.  That's not the case now, so I don't think you can really correlate last years data with current trends.

Sure I can explain the increase in others, holiday sales are beginning.

So, you support my hypothesis then.

Conveniently on the week of Black Friday, long known as the largest sales week of the year... yet you think that its only NA that sees the jump, because... there aren't sales anywhere else, because there's no "Friday after Thanksgiving"?  You think that, because many Americans are on holiday that single day, that they have some sort of wild impulse to spend on the holidays, whereas the rest of the world does not?

...or maybe, just maybe, do retailers around the world begin their holiday sales that week, because of its proximity to the coming religious giving holidays in december & january, across many faiths?

My statements are not about last week.  Its about this week, and beyond.  The entire world is having an economic crisis.  I don't see why the same logic doesn't apply everywhere.

Black Friday is only the biggest sales week in the US, not others. In others there is not a spike in sales from Black Friday, but a steady increase week by week leading up to Chirstmas. There is no reason for Wii sales in others to drop unless there are supply problems.

I never said, implied in any way that sales in others would not increase during Black Friday week. I'm saying there isn't a reason for sales to drop in others the week after Black Friday.

Plus you ignore the already available information. We have clear evidence that Wii software sales for the week increased in the UK, so it's perfectly logical that hardware sales increased in others as well.

 Typically Black Friday weekend isnt the biggest sales week in the US either. That is usually the last week before christmas. This year we will wait and see.