roadkillers,

I agree with u, the only problem that Wii will have to face is the lake of "most wanted game"
PS2 user base is not really interested in Wii, they want to buy PS3/Xbox360 but the console are too expensive.

But, there are still nintendo based game (that will sell a lot), and even with no games, Wii sport + cheap price are sufficient to sell the console.

Next year, third party+nintendo new IP, will bring more games and MAYBE, some games will below to "the most wanted game".

IF it is not the case in 2008, the Wii may not succeed to spread to the gamer market BUT Wii wil continue to spread to the NON-gamer market because of the hype and the price (WiiFit could sel like hot cake...)

LOL , MP3 vs Bioshock ???????

Even if MP3 will sell better than Bioshoc
in term of review score,

Bioshock 9.5 average
MP3 8.5 average

Do u really think MP3 can beat the potential game of the year ... ???

Yeah, I think it can be the game of the year:

Title	Plat	Company	Reviews	Avg. Vote	Avg Score
1. Metroid Prime	GC	Nintendo	93	8.8	96.3%
2. Metroid Prime 2: Echoes	GC	Nintendo	75	8.7	92.2%

Metroid Prime is #3 in all time rankings on Gamerankings.com and is the most critically acclaimed game that was released on the Gamecube, XBox or PS2 ...

http://gamerankings.com/itemrankings/simpleratings.asp?rankings=y

What's that at number 3? With an average of 96.3%?  Don't discount MP3 so quickly, if this game gets below 90% I will be shocked. It won't see MP reviews but 85% is being very pessimistic.

Do you have any evidence?

I would think that the PS2 user base is VERY interested in the Wii, since most of last generation's gamers were PS2 owners, and the Wii is soon to be the highest selling console in the world. To suggest that the 10 million Wii owners are made up primarily of Gamecube owners and new gamers is a ridiculous concept, given the absolute dominance of the PS2 I would be very shocked if less than 40% of Wii owners were PS2 owners (about half the people I know with a Wii also own(ed) a PS2.)

I'll GLADLY take a 6 month avatar bet, Game Boy.

Bioshock, afte 50 reviews will have a higher GameRankings.com score than Metroid Prime 3 @ 50.

OK,

- Sorry for Metroid Prime, u get the point about reviewer scorre !

- No, I think most of the Wii owners are GC owners
And even with 40% PS2 owners, there are still a lot of people that look at Wii thinking : "is it really nextgen ?"

In term of price, Wii beats everything, in term of global value, it is more balanced between the 3 consoles.
AND YES, I predict that PS2 owners want to play
GTA4 ==> No Wii
GT5 ==> No Wii
FF13 ==> No Wii
PES2008 ==> No Wii
MGS4 ==> No Wii
DMC4 ==> No Wii
RE5 ==> No Wii

This is the MAIN weakness of the Wii

1/ Even knowing this, Wii will sell because of price+wiimote+FFXIII/GTA4 not ready yet this year
2/ in 2008, multiplateform game may hit the Wii too (third party support)
THEN, the Wii will be INVULNERABLE in my opinion.
I just hope for wii owners that they will get better things that "minigames" or "braintrainer".

Maybe over one third the copies will be defective?

If this logic held true noone would of left Nintedo consoles in the first place because back during the 64 days the Nintendo first party games were the biggest.

In my opinion some people buy the console for the games.  However most by the games for the console.  Console momentum and hardware drive sales more then anything.  Despite most of the Wii's hardware being inferior the Wiimote has been seen as a big advantage.  Combined with early sales.  The Wii has both advantages the PS1 and PS2 had.

Let's look at your argument:  The Wii's top games (SMG, SSBB, MP3) are not on gametrailers' top 8, so they aren't considered "big games" by the gaming community.  (If this interpretation is incorrect please set me straight.)  

Halo 3 is not on gametrailers' top 8.  Does this mean that it is also not considered a "big game" by the gaming community?  I submit that the answer is no. 

Mass Effect and Bioshock are also not on the list.  Halo 3, Mass Effect, and Bioshock are AFAIK the 360's counterweights to the Wii's SMG, SSBB, and MP3.  None of these six games are on this top 8 list.  

I agree that this is a very interesting phenomenon.  Perhaps it is because many people already know what to expect with these games, or because they have already made their purchase decision?  Or maybe something else -- I'm totally guessing here.  

This is not an attack on you, roadkillers, because you clearly present the last paragraph as hypothesis, but everyone who responded to it who seemed to take it as fact, which I could not let pass. 

P.S.  I just double checked the thread, and apparently I was blind to everything starting with benkenobi -- but I still have some good points here so I'm posting.