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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS3 might not be able to overtake the 360

Smashchu2 on 27 November 2008
Crazymann said:
Smashchu2 said:
MikeB said:

With regard to point 2, the PS2 is still selling well so the previous generation isn't over yet. Likewise I think this generation of console's will last very long (nomatter if another console may be discontinued earlier). The 360 could have been discontinued its first year before the Wii launched, could anyone really claim victory for the 360 if that happened?

The problem is the nature of how console cycles work.

The console who is doing the best (right now, the Wii) will stay on the shelves the longest. The NES coninued long after the SNES, as did the PS1 and PS2. The runner ups usually have shorter life spans. Sega always released very early. The Dreamcast came out really quickly.

Why does it work this way? As the generation drags on, fewer and fewer games are made for those systems. People will buy them less as fewer people were interested in the system. The developers and publishers will move to the first place console leaving the others with less and less. Buyers loss interest. The reason Sony and Microsoft will have to make a new console is to sell units. The PS3 and 360 will eventually peak. All systems will (the ODS is sort of doing this in Japan). Weaker systems will less adoption will have to do this sooner as they peak much sooner. Natually, it has to be.

The 360 will have a better chance of staying on the shelves thanks to great third party support. It will not be able to outlive the Wii however. The system has lots of interest in it and, eventually, will be what developers are making their games on (a shift as been moving towards this). Sony has not gotten the same developer support the 360 has. In fact, one could say it has started to peak out as the 360, once again, beats it in sales.

 

That was true in the past, but developers will look at combined HD system sales (PS360 multiplats) and that will alter the "normal" flow of things. This generation cannot be pidgeonholed by past trends because of the Wii v.s. HD phenomenon.

In the end, Isthink PS360 will be close (with one having a slight edge over the other) and the market for both of them will keep them viable for software development. There is no denying that the tech levels of the Wii v.s. PS360 are different enough that games cannot be ported from HD to Wii without alteration. Thus the combined market of PS360 will play out differently than the "loers" of the past generation.

Really, all 3 companies could come out ahead when the smoke clears - though Sony is looking more and more dubious. Sony should NOT lower the price and concentrate on PROFIT and funding the next R&D cycle.

Then again, its easy for me to say that since I already have my PS3.

That would be true if the market was not about competition. Why are these systems cutting their price? It's not to combat the Wii. It's to combat the other guy (be it Sony or Microsoft).

Nintendo is fighting for the lower teirs, but Microsoft and Sony are both fighting for the higher tier. They have to compete with each other. So, if Microsoft release a new console, Sony will HAVE to retaliate. They can't afford not to. If that happens, Microsoft will take over the market.

Secondly, what you claimed (in bold) just can't be done. Again, Sony is fighting for the same market as the 360. They will lose more ground if the 360 gets away with more price cuts. If Microsoft does A, Sony must retaliate be it by A or by B. If they try to just make profit on the system then no one will buy it, developers will lose more interest and they wont be able to sell. Sony is in a possition of just getting the system of their hands and minimulizing damage. They are not in a good possition to do that kind of strategy.

Contrairy to popular belife, neither of the HD bros are in a good posstion. Both companies have lost a lot to gain very little ground. They need to bounce back so how or be things of the past.



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Picko on 27 November 2008
Zkuq said:
Not having read what anyone's said (including the OP), I have something to say.

I love it when people change their opinions to back up whoever is winning. In the beginning everyone claimed the 360 would have an easy victory (after Sony's not-so-good launch). A year later people were starting to side with Sony and finally, in this year's spring, they were sure Sony was going to win after all. Now that MS has had the price cuts and their effects are clear, people are again sure Sony has no chance.

I'm not trying to tell Sony will win this gen; I'm just telling that things aren't than simple. Things don't just magically change when someone temporarily gains the advantage and someone loses it. Sony might have a chance even if MS is strong right now. On the other hand, MS definitely has a good chance as well since they can compete this well.

 

 

So basically you hate it when people adjust their opinions because of new information? I'm sure complete ignorance would be a far better alternative.



 
Debating with fanboys, its not
all that dissimilar to banging ones
head against a wall 
Judeophobia on 27 November 2008

Next Gen consoles should arrive around 2011, but PS3 will still be selling well into 2014 if it's anything like the PS2. It will make up any ground in the last 3 or so years of its life when 360 has stopped selling.



Snake612 on 27 November 2008

The sales could change next year. Things might not
look bright for the ps3 but a lot can happen in 2009.



TO GOD BE THE GLORY

matt247 on 28 November 2008

The 360 had about a 5.3 million lead when the ps3 launched, now it's about a 6.2 million lead. MS has too much momentum and too many tricks up it's sleeve to counteract Sony.



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masschamber on 28 November 2008
Judeophobia said:
Next Gen consoles should arrive around 2011, but PS3 will still be selling well into 2014 if it's anything like the PS2. It will make up any ground in the last 3 or so years of its life when 360 has stopped selling.

 

the difference is that the ps2 and ps1 were on top of the heap,

other systems were manufactured well past the start of the next gen as well

the snes lasted till 98 in the US and 2000 in Japan because it did well, 2 and 4 years after the 64

the nes lasted untill 94 in the US and I don't know when in Japan, 3 and 4+ years after the snes94,

sega did the same thing aswell

the sega master system was supported until 93 or 94 in Europe, 3 years past the genesis, as it did decently in Europe and it made it to 97 in Brazil because it was a hit there

the genesis was supported until 98
 in the US as it was a success, 3 years after the saturn was introduced

if the ps3 doesn't pull ahead it won't continue to live on just because it is made by sony, by that logic the 64 should have been supported just as long as the ps1 just because it was nintendo



I HAVE A DOUBLE DRAGON CAB IN MY KITCHEN!!!!!!

NOW A PUNISHER CAB!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sephiroth357 on 28 November 2008

"Will not" would be a good substitute for, "might not."




kn on 28 November 2008
Smashchu2 said:

Before I begin, I want to say PLEASE don't make this a console ware thing. I'm just trying to look at sales.

From some calculations I did, I don't think the PS3 can possibly beat out the 360 at the end of this generation. Here is how I got there. The gap is 6.24million units. The PS3 typically sold ~50k a week over the 360 (when it beat the 360 weekly). If you use this number, it will take ~125 weeks to meet the gap (about 124.5). So, if the trend was to change now it will meet 360 sales in March 2011 or so.

The problem though is two fold

  1. The 360 is starting to beat the PS3 weekly. Normally it was the other way around. But recently, the 360 has been beating the PS3 again (much like in 2007). The problem us a matter of time. Every week the 360 beats the PS3 is lost ground. It not only means that the gap will widen, but it will take much longer to fill this lose. Sony is pressed for time if it wishes to take 2nd place.
  2. The generation will end arounf 2011. The generations have been getting shorter and shorter, and, with neither of these consoles straying from the old business model, it's likely to be this way too. Last generation lasted from 2000-2006. This is the long range (from the PS2 launch to the Wii launch). Most consoles live for ~5 years with the mark being met in 2011. Some may try to say the 10 year life cycle, but with Microsoft as a power competator and the system's weak reception, they can not let Microsoft beat them to the punch. They will have to make a system if Microsoft is.

So, that's what I'm looking at. The chances looked good for the system, but it may be too far gone since the PS3 isn't winning on a weekly basis.

Lol, I made the exact same post many months ago and got hammered by the local village idiots.  Check it out:

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=24476

 

I said something like Holidays 2010 if the PS3 was going to catch it at all.... And that major price moves would skew things.  Nice.  Now we are here one year later and that pushes the "win" by the PS3 out another year, if it happens at all.

 



I hate trolls.

Systems I currently own:  360, PS3, Wii, DS Lite (2)
Systems I've owned: PS2, PS1, Dreamcast, Saturn, 3DO, Genesis, Gamecube, N64, SNES, NES, GBA, GB, C64, Amiga, Atari 2600 and 5200, Sega Game Gear, Vectrex, Intellivision, Pong.  Yes, Pong.

Galaki on 28 November 2008

There's 1 way for Sony to win this gen. Free HDTV for every PS3 purchase. I'll line up for 2!!



Pre-order limited edition Blue Slime Condoms

wii4ever on 28 November 2008

Well from my point of view. It is good for videogames industry that ps3 is on third place because that will force sony to try harder in the innovation and development department. Little Big Planet eventhought not so great is a very good example from sony. remember loco roco for psp and generally i think sony starting to think more creatively because the competition is fierce. It reminds me the N64 days when Nintendo created some of the best games ever and that way they stayed in business.
I hope ps3 stays on the third place as i think such development will initiate new and fresh ideas ALSO from sony. To my surprise ms seems more capable to adapt at the new trends. The new dashboard is a very good example and a very big step ahead especially for ms's hardcore profile. They adapt. So has to do sony.