Before I begin, I want to say PLEASE don't make this a console ware thing. I'm just trying to look at sales.

From some calculations I did, I don't think the PS3 can possibly beat out the 360 at the end of this generation. Here is how I got there. The gap is 6.24million units. The PS3 typically sold ~50k a week over the 360 (when it beat the 360 weekly). If you use this number, it will take ~125 weeks to meet the gap (about 124.5). So, if the trend was to change now it will meet 360 sales in March 2011 or so.

The problem though is two fold

1. The 360 is starting to beat the PS3 weekly. Normally it was the other way around. But recently, the 360 has been beating the PS3 again (much like in 2007). The problem us a matter of time. Every week the 360 beats the PS3 is lost ground. It not only means that the gap will widen, but it will take much longer to fill this lose. Sony is pressed for time if it wishes to take 2nd place.
2. The generation will end arounf 2011. The generations have been getting shorter and shorter, and, with neither of these consoles straying from the old business model, it's likely to be this way too. Last generation lasted from 2000-2006. This is the long range (from the PS2 launch to the Wii launch). Most consoles live for ~5 years with the mark being met in 2011. Some may try to say the 10 year life cycle, but with Microsoft as a power competator and the system's weak reception, they can not let Microsoft beat them to the punch. They will have to make a system if Microsoft is.

So, that's what I'm looking at. The chances looked good for the system, but it may be too far gone since the PS3 isn't winning on a weekly basis.

PS3 is unlikely to overtake X360 in total worldwide sales within the next two years. By the time PS3 overtakes X360 in 2011 the new XBox will be out and it would not matter.
There is currently a 6.24 million gap of X360 over PS3 and it is increasing. It will be over 7 million gap by the end of 2008.
X360 has increased a 5.3 million lead back up to 6.24 million lead within the last three months. 30 August 2008 to 22 November 2008
PS3 price cut will come too late and by then it will be approaching 8 million gap behind X360 in mid 2009. X360 price cuts would come into effect immediately after PS3 2009 price cuts.

On the matter of price cuts, I think they are getting less and less effective. In 2007, the 360 beat the PS3 weekly, but late 2007 and up until late 2008 the PS3 beat the 360. I do beleive the inicial boost snaged people who were on the edge. They had interest, but they couldn't afford it. Now, it may be a case top where most of the people who wanted on got one.

I think it may this that prevents most price cuts from working (and I think Microsoft and Sony understand this). Eventually, you'll snag all the people who wanted you system, but could not afford it. It hit the highest sales increase. Now they will have to sell to the people who have no interest (which is easier said then done).

With regard to point 1 I agree, the gap is probably widening this holiday season, while before the gap got smaller by over 3 million since the beginning of 2007 up to September 2008. At an entry pricing of 149 Euro vs more than double that for the PS3 and all big and small hits on the original XBox already seen sequels on the 360 but yet has to reach that platform's install base is smaller, it would be expected for this year.

With regard to point 2, the PS2 is still selling well so the previous generation isn't over yet. Likewise I think this generation of console's will last very long (nomatter if another console may be discontinued earlier). The 360 could have been discontinued its first year before the Wii launched, could anyone really claim victory for the 360 if that happened?

@Smashchu2

Your logic is entirely sound, and more to the point it is time tested. Nothing you said was untrue, and you were more then generous with your variables. They are in line with typical sales variation within the non holiday year. Which means the PS3 only stands a possible chance with exceptional sales performance next holiday season, and a performance that surpasses the 360s performance thus far this holiday season. That is just not very likely.

There are actually very few statistical models that allow for the PS3 to overcome the 360 within the generation window. Those models also rely on perfect confluences of conditions, or unprecedented success. The PS3 would literally need to reverse the trend, and double the trend over at the next greatest opportunity which is the next holiday season after stalemating Microsoft for the preceding eight or nine months. All highly unlikely.

This is why many Sony loyalists on these forums were terribly distraught about the price differential. They understood even two months ago that Sony had a finite window that was closing for the last time. Sony needed to approach parity before years end, and with out that their victory margins would have to become more unrealistic.

PS3 lost the second spot 6 months ago.

I doubt that, the PS3 install base worldwide excluding North America the platform is already ahead, this despite a 1 year and 5 months 360 headstart for Europe and more so for other regions.

North America needs some work from Sony, but I think nothing is really lost.

Well, You may forget something ... the price! Please guys, 400$ is way too much for average american/european, wait the console to go under the 300/250$ before claiming stuff like that

All that head start means is that Microsoft will have an extra year to sell hardware/software. The actual consoles will decline at the same time in the generation because they are essentially the same machines. If they don't decline together then the PS3 will decline first as the losing machine generally does and recent trends are starting to indicate.

If we can all agree that it will take a price drop for the PS3 to start 'beating' the 360 again in world wide sales and we take the supposed 'leaked' report of it occurring in March as gospel - what will be the gap by then? 7.5million? more?

One thing is for certain with a gap that large they can't do it in 2009.