The PS3 might not be able to overtake the 360

[Dodece]

@Smashchu2

Your logic is entirely sound, and more to the point it is time tested. Nothing you said was untrue, and you were more then generous with your variables. They are in line with typical sales variation within the non holiday year. Which means the PS3 only stands a possible chance with exceptional sales performance next holiday season, and a performance that surpasses the 360s performance thus far this holiday season. That is just not very likely.

There are actually very few statistical models that allow for the PS3 to overcome the 360 within the generation window. Those models also rely on perfect confluences of conditions, or unprecedented success. The PS3 would literally need to reverse the trend, and double the trend over at the next greatest opportunity which is the next holiday season after stalemating Microsoft for the preceding eight or nine months. All highly unlikely.

This is why many Sony loyalists on these forums were terribly distraught about the price differential. They understood even two months ago that Sony had a finite window that was closing for the last time. Sony needed to approach parity before years end, and with out that their victory margins would have to become more unrealistic.