I also would add that it has to do with time in comparison to when the next generation will hit the market.

If the next gen starts in 2010, its already over, the PS3 is stopped at the current 6m.
If the next gen starts in 2012, PS3 still has a chance unless the 360 had a 10m lead.

I think the difference between Wii vs. 360 and 360 vs. PS3 can be seen in a few things:

1) Wii shipped a year after 360 and yet has sold 14 million more - that's pretty telling.

2) PS3 is 6+ million behind 360 but shipped a year later, so it's hard to say just yet how that will play out.

3) Wii is still outselling 360 by a large margin even now that 360 is available at a lower price point - PS3 is still far more expensive than 360 - we don't know for certain what will happen if/when that changes.

4) Because PS2 was so successful, there may still be plenty of PS2 users who are waiting to get PS3s.

That said, I personally think that the 360 will remain ahead of the PS3 for the rest of this generation, but it's definitely not as simple as comparing the gap - there are other factors that play into the long term success of these platforms.

Well if you insist....

Point of no return - 360 outsells the PS3 by 6,666,666 consoles.... Mark my words!!

Since everyone else refuses to give a number, I will.

If the PS3 gets to be more than 11.0 million behind the 360, I belive it will not catch up.

I'm not saying that it couldn't, but that's when I would no longer think it could.

In terms of public perception. The Wii has crossed the point of no return. Even the 360 is having "a new experience" as of Nov, but that's more like "shutting the stable door while the horse has bolted".

As for the PS3, it's had a bad rap for a long time and the bad perception would not be changed for a long time.

I'd say 8.0 million for the 360. If it can manage to climb to a gap that large then the gap in weekly/monthly sales is obviously large enough that the PS3 won't be able to turn things around.

I'd say 3.0 million for the PS3. If it can overcome the current gap and climb to a gap that large then the same is true.

Given the parade of defeatism, and mutual antagonism over the past twenty four hours. The unabated feeding frenzy sometimes bordering on the down right mean spirited. I think it is apparent that a number is actually required to satisfy and finalize the debate.

I mean why scream there is hope if your not going to say where it exactly ends. Why scream doomed if your not confident enough to give a little more margin to make your point. Just toss in your lot, and leave it there for all to see. That way when someone says when will you concede you can say at this margin, and if your looking for a concession you can say this is a future number I relented to. At least we can move beyond the blood lust. We can wait till the number is reached, or is not reached. Wouldn't it be better to just have one finish line rather then a brawl that takes weeks or months to finally resolve. Just concede to a point, and lets get back to more pleasant discussion.

My margin would be 9 million. Either Microsoft does the inconceivable this holiday season which means it is undeniable, or it takes it until early spring in which case it shows that Microsoft shows that the lead is entirely stable. Either way I do not think anyone could deny this. I would shun anything higher, because that starts to drag into summer or actually next fall if the trends persist.

Im calling it as pretty much now, we're just waiting for the numbers to come in for the next few weeks to confirm it. The number I would call for a point of no return is about 7-8 million units, 7.5 if you want me to be specific.

My reasoning is this: People are social creatures, they are influenced by what their friends and family purchase. By merely having more consoles on the market Microsoft has a natural advantage in furthering or increasing their lead.

Xbox Live vs PSN: The more consoles Microsoft gets on Xbox Live, the more Live is valued or PSN devalued relative to it in spite of being free. Also because Xbox Live costs money, people tend to want to increase the value of their subscription by getting their friends on Live as well. Its a Network/Social effect on sales which benefits Microsoft.

The other thing is this: Sony has to turn things around in 2 markets and not just one. But they don't look like they are able to mount much of a response and if there is a pricecut coming in March I doubt they will be willing/able to cut the price in two markets at the same time. If they take no action or only take action in one market they could see the gap increasing every week albeit at a slower pace.

In this situation, earlier this year Microsoft really only had to turn things around in one market as we've seen from the two price cuts they did. The Anerican market was always theirs, they had a gap to burn and they bided their time for profitability rather than rushing into premature action. Sony does not have time, nor the luxury of a lead they can use.

I think a good number to put the rankings in place between the PS3 and 360 is 7 million. I think once the 360 is 7 million above the PS3, there is no chance in hell of the PS3 returning and closing that gap.

It would need like 2 flawless holidays and 2 great years in a row.

However, during launch time, nothing can be decided on for sure. It would take a glance about a year down the line and sales rates for all fully released consoles to decide the "nail-in-the-coffin" number.


(Ahhh....... I hit Post number 2,000. It was a long time coming)