Im calling it as pretty much now, we're just waiting for the numbers to come in for the next few weeks to confirm it. The number I would call for a point of no return is about 7-8 million units, 7.5 if you want me to be specific.
My reasoning is this: People are social creatures, they are influenced by what their friends and family purchase. By merely having more consoles on the market Microsoft has a natural advantage in furthering or increasing their lead.
Xbox Live vs PSN: The more consoles Microsoft gets on Xbox Live, the more Live is valued or PSN devalued relative to it in spite of being free. Also because Xbox Live costs money, people tend to want to increase the value of their subscription by getting their friends on Live as well. Its a Network/Social effect on sales which benefits Microsoft.
The other thing is this: Sony has to turn things around in 2 markets and not just one. But they don't look like they are able to mount much of a response and if there is a pricecut coming in March I doubt they will be willing/able to cut the price in two markets at the same time. If they take no action or only take action in one market they could see the gap increasing every week albeit at a slower pace.
In this situation, earlier this year Microsoft really only had to turn things around in one market as we've seen from the two price cuts they did. The Anerican market was always theirs, they had a gap to burn and they bided their time for profitability rather than rushing into premature action. Sony does not have time, nor the luxury of a lead they can use.
Tease.
