First a brief outline of Moving picture entertainment:

Simple Movie, then Talkies.  Studios pump them out like a "factory".

As Ticket sales are more and more competitive the movies get bigger budgets.

Many of the middle level artist move to Television, which become the new entertainment "factory".  Every one is able to enjoy (or sit and stare) for hours a day.  It is accessible.

DVD's bring movie experience home in a more accessible way, but it isn't the same as seeing on the big screen and yo get some straight to video stuff.

Video Game Corralation:

Kojima believes that the same progression happened.  He feels like he is the VG equivelant of a Hollywood Director.  He also believes that the PS3 is significantly more powerful (him, not me, but other game designers agree, like Itagaki and Mikami).  360 (in his mind) is like a DVD player because when a game gets ported to both it is either held back or dumbed down, like watching a DVD instead of a movie (his theory, not mine)

Wii is like TV in the sense that they are lower budget and will get the "factory" stuff (Conspiracy Games, EA Casual, Ubi Casual, etc.).  This doesn't mean that it won't get some quality stuff too, it will get it's equivalent of Heroes, 24, Lost (I don't know if these are great examples of quality TV, because I don't watch TV.  Equivalent to Quality NOT necessarily llicensed games).

How do you think this will effect sales in the coming years (08-11)?

the most powerful console won't necessarily win.

while the analogy works sort of.

imo it'll be like this

more people own tv's than dvd players.

more people watch movies on dvd than goto the movie theatre

thus:

thus TV wins due to the highest installed base
dvd comes in 2nd
and the theatre comes in 3rd ...

as to how it affects sales, it won't.

 right now you still cannot walk into the store and buy a wii and its been that way for 8 months.

you can walk into most stores and buy the 360 or ps3.

until that changes, the wii sales will remain extremely high in reference to the other 2 consoles 

sort of agree.  However, I see one flaw with the analogy.  How many people can afford to buy a movie theater?

It's an ok analogy, it makes his point, but not very well.

The gap between movie theatre and DVD is huge, the gap between PS3 and 360 isn't. In fact, we haven't really seen a gap as of yet. Not to mention the fact that the films that are better in movie theatres are often flashy effects movies with little substance and that if it doesn't translate to the small screen then it is a film with limited merit. Not something you would want to compare the PS3 to if you were talking about it in complimentary terms.

Graphics and power wise a better analogy is that the 360 and PS3 are HD-DVD/Blu-ray and the Wii is DVD. However that completely ignores the Wiimote which is an integral part of the Wii.

The analogy doesn't fit future sales trends. Although if it did then Sony would be in trouble, most movies don't attract enough customers and they don't make a profit. However tv has far more potential customers and can have a better profit margin.

Beavis said: sort of agree. However, I see one flaw with the analogy. How many people can afford to buy a movie theater?

And don't some people prefer the TV if it's easier for companies to produce for so more good (not ultra-realistic, but innovative) content will reach it? Plus the TV has its own in-house production team with powerful and innovative exclusives that don't require raw processing power to look good. The analogy sucks, basically.

Just to clear up. I don't think he was saying that PS3 would "win". It just explains why he like to work on it.

I personally don't agree, but I find it interesting to see how artists think. How they decide what medium to use and so forth.

You're like John Lucas and Gballzack rolled into one, amazing.

Kojima has some interesting analogies. I prefer this one, because it is the most confusing.

From his perspective, each of the three consoles represents a steak dinner:

"If the game creators and the users want to have a great steak for their anniversary, they go maybe to PS3. But if they want great dinner, great steak with their family, a little bit more casual during the weekends, they might select Xbox 360. Or why not have a great steak at your house everyday, they might choose Revolution (Wii)."

Actually I believe all he said was that he would like to make a Wii game if I remember correctly.  Which really doesn't mean anything. 

I mean I like Chocolate Ice Cream better then Vanilla... i get it nearly everytime I get icecream.

 If I say "I would like some Vanilla Icecream" that doesn't mean i'm giving up chocolate for life, or even that chocolate isn't still my favorite.  It just means that I want to try something different one time.

 Kinda how some movie producers will have TV shows.

 Thank you for getting this thread and and for being so funny.