Just like the ps3 will last 10 years.

15 years. Think about that. That would mean that if you bought a Wii back in 1995, it'd still be your primary console. Now, I loved my Snes, but I jumped at a chance to buy an N64! 15 years isn't really probable.

yea i expect good sales for 7-8 years not 15. When Nintendo moves on consumers will too. The only way it possibly lasts longer is if wii 2 becomes a ps3 like failure and wii can't be killed.

well due to bringing more people into gaming, the Wii is selling better than the NES and SNES (in fact any console in history), I would not be suprised if they (Nintendo) will give it a life-span at a minimum that of the above consoles. As one of the above consoles lasted 12 years, it would not be out of the question for the Wii to continue to be produced on a similar 12 to 15 years timescale.

Judging on what they did last time (NES games consoles), If the Wii had a 15year lifespan, I suspect Nintendo would

1.  Release and updated console (remodeled smaller and more streamlined) at some point (this technically is not a new console, as it does not offer new features (with the NES they had NES2, then SNES kept is name when it was remodelled). I suspect Sony copied of this stratergy with the PSone and the new slimline PS2

2. Release a new console 10 years into the Wii life, in 2016 with the Wii finally ending production in 2021.

The Wii's maximum lifespan at this point is actually 15-20 years. It will remain high as long as no same-value competition exists. The longer it takes for same-value competitors to emerge, the longer it will live. This is not speculation or prediction, this is history: products catering to values which are not effectively catered to by any other products have extremely long lifespans simply because they have no competition for what they do.

Some call it monopoly, some call it Blue Ocean Strategy, but what it ultimately boils down to is that people will continue to buy a product which suits their values until a better option comes along. And even then, as long as the same-value competitor did not emerge before the original product gained mainstream appeal, the lifespan of the original product will remain high due to the fact that it was the first option to become well-known.

All that said, once a same-value competitor emerges which does things better than the Wii, its lifespan will drop. By how much depends greatly on 1.) when that competition emerges, 2.) how effective it is at catering to the same values as the Wii, and 3.) how well Nintendo responds to the threat.

The reason that Wii could last a lot longer than any previous console is that there will be no Wii 2.

SNES offered a souped-up version of the NES experience. PS2 offered a souped-up version of the PS1 experience. Etc.

NES and PS1 were the standard-bearers of a certain type of experience, and they transfered their momentum to their successors; not their imitators. (PS2 did not because of PS3 overshooting the market and Wii disrupting.) As winning consoles, NES, PS1 and PS2 all had 10-year lifecycles.

But when a console like Game Boy wasn't replaced for an extended period of time, and remained the standard-bearer for a certain type of experience, it lasted well over 10 years, still crushing souped-up imitators into the late 90s.

Unless they simply abandon their current strategy, Nintendo are not going to replace Wii with a souped-up version of the Wii experience. Whenever their next console comes out, it will be because they have a lot of ideas, representing a new type of experience, that they can't offer on Wii. If Sony or MS tried to offer a souped-up Wii with their next console, it would chase away their established PS3/360 audiences, and not give them any power to fight Wii (just like Gamecube and XBox were both outsold by PS1 during last gen... Look it up). So Wii will be able to remain the standard-bearer for the Wii experience basically forever, and be able to go as far as that experience is appealing to people.

Then we'll get to see how "evergreen" their evergreen titles really are. Nintendo themselves of course will always be supporting their latest console, so the long-tail sales of Wii will rely on third parties and the Nintendo catalogue.

On another note, Nintendo will never allow the Wii to survive its full 20-year potential lifespan even if same-value competition doesn't emerge. When a product reaches its authentic end of life point, it dies. Virtually nobody buys new units, service calls are more frequent, new add-ons for it end up less and less successful, etc.

If they're business-savvy (and all signs point to them being very business-savvy indeed), Nintendo is going to come out with something before the Wii's lifespan is up to completely destroy the system's appeal and the appeal of any same-value Wii competitors in the process. I don't know for sure what it will be, however. Few people predicted the Wii, after all, and what comes next has to have the same effect.

 What are you talking about? Let's take a look at the top 5 best selling games for each console.

Wii : 1-Wii Fit

        2-Mario Kart Wii

        3-SSBB

        4-Super Mario Galaxy

        5-Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games

X360 : 1-Halo 3

           2-Call of Duty 4

           3-GTA IV

           4-Gears of War

           5-Forza Motorsport 2

PS3 : 1-GTA IV

         2-Call of Duty 4

         3-Motorstorm

         4-MGS4

         5-Resistance

Don't you see a pattern here? 4 games out of 5 are shooters for PS360 while the top 5 games on Wii are 5 different types of games. With that in mind I think that it's faire to assume that HD consoles are mainly shooter games sellers and this is a good reason why the mass market isn't interested in those kind of consoles.

Dear Lord no......

Please no.....

OT: I say 7-8 years. Of course it can sell for 20 years, any product can..... how much it will sell during those 20 years is the question..... in it's 18th year what will it sell??? .78M units??? I don't think Nintendo will be Manufacturing the Wii 12 years from now.....

 2003, in Japan was when they stopped making them