24% total in your estimation what is the remaining 76%?

I just came back from a short trip in Asia and VCD is still rather big over there, sold right next to the DVDs even the latest title like Hancock, Iron-man and those are not bruned internet download they are genuine official release.

Let's be honest Blue-ray is only for a small wealthy minority, it will be rather impossible to make the majority of the global market move away from DVD.

I started playing around on the internet about 14 years ago on my 14.4 modem and it is remarkable on how much it has evolved since then ...

About 10 years ago there was a debate as to whether MP3s were going to be the next mass market format or if SACD/DVD-A were going to dominate, and the basic arguments that are used against Digital Downloaded movies today were used against MP3 back then. What people never seem to take into consideration in these types of discussions is how much bandwith at a price level can increase in 36 months, and how one break-out product can really change the face of a competition. An example of a break-out product was the iPod because before it was released many/most people would burn their MP3 files to a CD to play in their old players, and the release (and popularity) of the iPod meant that people so no value in burning CDs anymore.

Right now people are downloading a lot of movies and there are even people who are downloading 4GB/8GB 720p/1080p HD movies. These people have accepted the limitations of the internet at the moment and are (completely) willing to queue up a download to store on their massive hard-drives until they have a reason to watch it; many of these people own a XBox 360, PS3 or Home Theater PC extender to watch these movies without worrying about burning discs. All that is missing (at the moment) is a mass market product that can change the thinking of the majority of users and Digital Downloads could explode.

@Happy Squrriel - Digital downloads would be a lot more successful right now if they offered the same benefits as MP3s. MP3s are great because they are portable, permanent, and allow you to buy the best parts of an album without paying full price. Unfortunately with digital downloads, you need to watch it on the device you purchased it, it is a rental with an extremely limited viewing window, and you need to buy the whole movie. Digital downloads are great, I have been doing it for years via pay per view. Whenever I want to actually own the content, I buy it on DVD or now I will buy it on Blu-ray.

Also the quality of a digital download is noticeably less than a Blu-ray movie. So if download providers are able to resolve the issues with quality, portability, and ownership we would be able to discuss bigger picture issues like bandwidth.

I agree that there are lots of problems holding back digital downloads at the moment, and finding the hot product (in terms of a decent download service as well as hardware) will hold them back for awhile ...

The quality of the video is a much smaller consideration than many people think though ... Back in the day people were happy to download 128kbs to 196kbs MP3 audio (which are dramatically worse than CD audio) and people have not really bought into any HD content at the moment. Regardless of what Blu-Ray backers think, I wouldn't be surprised if the average person watched upscaled DVD video (or possibly a higher resolution than DVD like 854x640 or 1024x576) and didn't care if it was HD or not.

@HappySqurriel - Thanks for your response. I think the MP3 argument falls flat a little because a majority of the people that enjoy the cd quality encoding of MP3 audio are listening to the file via earbuds or inexpensive speakers. If you listen to a 128 encoding on decent loudspeakers you would notice a substantial drop in quality from a high def or analog source.

The reason why the MP3 argument doesn't match fully is because the standard HD display devices are of much better quality than standard ear buds.  Your typical viewer may not know what a compression artifact is, but they do see them in highly compressed video offered by download services. Not to mention the audio quality included in these dowload services is atrocious. I agree that that there is less of a difference between an upscaled DVD compared to a Blu-ray movie. All Blu-ray players upscale DVD's as well. There is a significant difference from a downloaded movie compared to an upscaled DVD or Blu-ray.

IMO, I believe the typical HDTV owner would be able to correctly rank a downloaded movie, upscaled dvd, and Blu-ray in order of quality.

The first DVD players launched in 12/1995 and 4 years later the Matrix was released and became the first DVD to sell over a million DVDs at launch. The first Blu-ray players hit the market in 6/2006. The Dark Knight releases on Blu-ray 2 and a half years later and will ship over a million Blu-rays at launch. 

No, the comparison is perfect. MP3 took off only because it was the standard chosen by the pirates... They were the majority and they still are. The pirates are choosing digital distribution. Right now, the average movie is 700MB (to fit on a cd) and the quality varies from DVD quality to lower than DVD. However, those movies are extremely portable and transferable just like MP3 were. As piracy goes up, it could seriously threaten Blu-Ray more than anything else. That's why the movie companies spend more in lawyers and bribes than promotion of the Blu-Ray format.

Sony shouldn't be worried about digital downloads for movies. Unless it's a wav. file it takes too long. And Wav. won't be taking any of my bluray purchases. I get blurays when I'm tired of looking at Gif. quality videos. Also not worried about VOD either.

50% of teenagers did not buy a CD in the past year. How will that translate in a few years when the same group of people start buying movies? Its so much easier to download a movie rather than buy one. If they can't get it legitimately they will do it illegally and then they will get into the habit of never paying for movies and they've suddenly lost a whole generation of customers.

Sometimes when im feeling naughty/lazy I go to www.mininova.com, seach for DVD rip and sort by seeders. Within 30 mins I have a DVD quality movie. It takes less time than driving 5 mins to the nearest rental place, looking for a DVD, renting it and coming back. I don't have to repeat the trip again to return said DVD.

I think the whole push behind digital distribution is stupid.  If you think about it, it is just as costly, if not more, to use digital distribution.  Reasons: upgrade internet speed (if you can get broadband at all, Satellite is not broadband, sorry), storage area (ok hd's are cheap but still an incurred cost), you still need to upgrade to a HDTV if you want to watch on a large picture area with hd content, larger chance of corrupt data in transfer.   Now for another negative, no hard copy.  blu-ray prices can only come down from where they are now.  There are players available for under $200 now and there are frequent sales for TV's+blu-ray player/ps3 where essentially you get the player for free and TV is still cheap.  There are packages available right now for a 1080p 37 inch tv + ps3 for $1000.  That is not a bad price for anyone right now.

I think the whole push behind digital distribution is stupid.  If you think about it, it is just as costly, if not more, to use digital distribution.  Reasons: upgrade internet speed (if you can get broadband at all, Satellite is not broadband, sorry), storage area (ok hd's are cheap but still an incurred cost), you still need to upgrade to a HDTV if you want to watch on a large picture area with hd content, larger chance of corrupt data in transfer.   Now for another negative, no hard copy.  blu-ray prices can only come down from where they are now.  There are players available for under $200 now and there are frequent sales for TV's+blu-ray player/ps3 where essentially you get the player for free and TV is still cheap.  There are packages available right now for a 1080p 37 inch tv + ps3 for $1000.  That is not a bad price for anyone right now.