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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Mrstickball's Chart Tracker - Get First Day/Week Projections, Fast.

mrstickball on 12 November 2008

Via my primitive projections. I've done quite a few of these as of late, due to the major games like Fable 2, Fallout 3, and Gears of War 2.

If your wondering what I projected using the same methodology, I had:

  • Fable 2 - 350,000 Opening, 1,000,000 Week
  • Fallout 3 - 225,000 Opening, 600,000 Week
  • Gears of War 2 - 1,450,000 Opening, 2,000,000 Week (give or take)

Now, using this methodology, Call of Duty 5 is currently trending to.......

  • Call of Duty 5 - 150,000-200,000 Opening (NA). 800,000 Opening week. Updated due to MGC extrapolations pointing to a much higher-than expected number. 

Just in case anyone is curious :)

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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toastboy44562 on 12 November 2008

cool!



WiiStation360 on 12 November 2008

I though you had Gears at 3 million first week?

Edit:  Make that 3-3.5 million



mrstickball on 12 November 2008
WiiStation360 said:

I though you had Gears at 3 million first week?

Edit:  Make that 3-3.5 million

Read lower into the thread. I stated that 3 million for it's first 5 days, since the release week was so wonky versus Halo 3.

Here's my quote about halfway down the thread:

I think the advantage is that Gears 2 *did* release near a weekend, where most gamers buy games, and play over the weekend. Also, it has the advantage of getting 2 full weekends of sales before Week-2 is out. I really don't think having an extra 3 days of weekdays is going to give Gears 2 some sort of insane boost.

Here's the way I look at it *assuming it is as frontloaded as Halo 3*:

Halo 3:

1.8m First Day

3.8m First Week (5 days)

4.597m in 12 days

 

Grand Theft Auto IV:

Ukn First Day

3.4m First Week (5 days)

4.265m in 12 days

Looking at Day-0 Gears data, it's in between GTAIV and Halo 3 in the best case scenario, and at worst, at 80% of Halo 3 for launch sales (or 1.45m on day-0).

The other aspects to take into consideration is/are Week 3 data. Assuming sales keep going down, both GTAIV and H3 saw 50% drops from Week-2 to Week-3. To me, that means that sales may not be that insanely hot (by comparison) after the 2nd weekend. If that's the case, then I don't think that the extra 3 days of sales would help a whole bunch (on average, both GTAIV and H3 sold 50,000-70,000 units per day on week 3. Which would put the 3 day advantage of a 2 week cycle between 150,000-210,000 units lower than either comparison, which I think is likely since the missing days are weekdays, and not weekend days).

*Of course* this assume that the extra days are closer to week-3 numbers, and not week 2 numbers. Week 2 numbers for H3 and GTAIV are around 110,000-130,000 per day, which would drop the low end of the scenarios by an extra 180,000-240,000 units. But for these scenarios, I'll just use week-3 data.

So putting that forth, we should look at these plausible scenarios:

  • Worst Case: Gears 2 sells exactly like Halo 3, ~81% of Halo 3 on it's first 2 weeks, minus 150,000-210,000 units for 3-day discrepancy.
  • Total After 2 weeks: 3,413,000-3,473,000
  • Best Case: Gears 2 sells somewhere in between GTAIV and Halo 3 in a similar timeframe, minus 150,000-210,000 units for the 3-day discrepancy.
  • Total After 2 weeks: 4,221,000-4,281,000

So the middle of the road scenario would be between 3,817,000 and 3,877,000 units in 9 days assuming similar trending for week 3 data. If you used week 2 averages (which I think are just too high, given the fact they're weekdays), your looking at a bare minimum of 3.2m in 2 weeks, and still having a best-case scenario over 4.0m (with the median being between 3.6 and 3.7m)

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Squilliam on 12 November 2008

Thats awesome! Its amazing that all these games are selling so well.

Btw are you going to track Left 4 Dead? I have a bet with Naznatips and I don't want to lose to him twice in a row.



Tease.

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mrstickball on 12 November 2008

Oh, and for those that want to know, after looking at Gears 2's trends after Sunday, it looks that Gears 2 in a 5-day launch period, sold 2.8m units - about 500,000 less than GTAIV, but with 1 less day, it seems.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball on 12 November 2008
Squilliam said:
Thats awesome! Its amazing that all these games are selling so well.

Btw are you going to track Left 4 Dead? I have a bet with Naznatips and I don't want to lose to him twice in a row.

I will track it if you like :)

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Squilliam on 12 November 2008
mrstickball said:
Squilliam said:
Thats awesome! Its amazing that all these games are selling so well.

Btw are you going to track Left 4 Dead? I have a bet with Naznatips and I don't want to lose to him twice in a row.

I will track it if you like :)

 

Thanks, the numbers should be useful as its pretty much an online-only type game. Perhaps it will be good to help tune your methods?

 



Tease.

Tyrannical on 13 November 2008

Chart Track has Gears tracking just below GTA:IV and Halo 3 in the UK in their current week.



Yet, today, America's leaders are reenacting every folly that brought these great powers [Russia, Germany, and Japan] to ruin -- from arrogance and hubris, to assertions of global hegemony, to imperial overstretch, to trumpeting new 'crusades,' to handing out war guarantees to regions and countries where Americans have never fought before. We are piling up the kind of commitments that produced the greatest disasters of the twentieth century.
 — Pat Buchanan – A Republic, Not an Empire

Onyxmeth on 13 November 2008

Make that 600,001 for Call of Duty. I just bought a copy.



Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.