Wii Music - It seems I was the only one to correctly predict this title would not succeed commercially in the way Sports/Play/Fit & Kart have (although Malstrom alluded to it in his blog).

But why has it failed to do so?

Simply put - Miyamoto lost track of his own vision. 

Originally when the Wii was concept only, Miyamoto set out 3 oppurtunties for games that would appeal to a mass audience, not just a gaming audience.  Those were: Sports, fitness and of course, music.

The idea was to make these games ACCESSIBLE to ALL people in a non-threatening way (not complex or hard to learn) so that anyone and everyone would want to play.

Wii's success is directly attributable to Wii Sports.  Wii Sports was a realization of the dream.

Not everyone cares about fitness, but most people do to some degree, including a massive market not currently buying games.  Wii Fit was not only a success in it's own right, it's a massive system seller to an all new market.

But then we have Wii Music.   There are two fundimental problems for Wii Music.   One - It's been done better.  If Wii Music was a launch title it'd have fared MUCH better.  But now we have GHIII, Rockband, GHWT, RB2, Samba de Amigo, etc., etc., which all bring music to the masses.  At this point Wii Music, while different, is seen as yet another music game in a crowded field.

Worse though is this: It's NOT accessible to everyone.  Miyamoto is a musician.  He plays guitar.  PLAYS being the opperative word.  He plays on his for his own amusement, no one elses.  He made a game that likewise - you PLAY with music.  Unlike GH or RB where you only pretend to play with music.  But those games are more fun - why?  Because you can't do the song wrong.  What??  That's backward to what everyone is saying?  Check it - In those games all you do is follow a set pattern of button presses which HAVE NO AFFECT on the music.   If you screw up enough the song stops, you try again. But the song is always good.  You always feel like you're playing the song for real.

In Wii Music the song won't stop no matter how badly you mutilate it.  In Wii Music what you do ACTUALLY affects the sound of the song.  That is a mistake.  Why?  Because that's what makes it non-accessible.  Most people CANNOT actually play music worth a damn.  We suck.  If we didn't we'd all have guitars to play already.  Worse, you're forced to listen as you (and friends) totally kill the song you're trying to play.  That's not fun.

Now people with a musical apptitute will love Wii Music.  It'll be successful as a niche title, but that wasn't the idea.

Worse, Nintendo played this title as their main holiday release.   Of course there's Animal Crossing which will do it's usual amazing self but it's old, will mostly appeal to people who already played it before and won't expand the market much.   That's a problem.   In targetting the casual market Nintendo created a problem.  As they have mentioned many times - You have to keep giving them new experiences or they get bored.   With Wii Music a comparitive failure (commercially) Nintendo is offering nothing new to keep casual players from being bored.   And hasn't for far too long.  Not since Mario Kart Wii.

Now Wii will still sell like crazy this holiday season, but it's running on the momentum of old titles only right now.  That may not last.  Nintendo needs to get Wii Sports Resort out sooner rather than later to keep it going before it starts to slow down.  Especially in Japan where nothing has been selling on Wii except Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, Wii Sports and Wii Play.   Once you lose momentum it's very difficult to regain.  Especially when MS & Sony will be quick to pounce on any perceived weakness and label Wii as a FAD.  If sells slow and it's suddenly overly available (post Christmas) people may see shelves overflowing with Wiis and although they are selling stongly the perception that the fad is over will seem real.  No one wants to get in at the end of a fad.   It won't be reality but with proper marketing from Sony/MS it could become reality.

Exploring a blue ocean market is risky as it's unexplored.  Nintendo made their first misstep.  Wii Sports Resort and Play on Wii will help but if Wii Sports Resort fails to grasps peoples imagination as Wii Sports once did then we could be seeing the beginning of the end for Wii's dominance.

Note: Lightly edited for clarity and my own overdramatization

Failed commercially? Come on, it's still got a million or so sales ahead of it.

The assumption and building block of this whole rant is on the fact Wii Music has failed, which is has not. How can you place failure on a game that has only been out a few weeks and will undoubtedly have super long legs. Therefore this entire rant or whatever you call it has no basis at all and was truly a waste of my time.

Another Wii = Fad thread...

I think Japan sales are the basis for this article.

Every week Wii Music sales have been  dropping by 50% or more there compared to the previous week...

But yeah I agree with the author, the game/music market has already been brought to the casual users with GH and RockBand and those games are a lot better at what they do than Wii Music is....

GH and Rockband are games with tremendous legs too but they open a lot higher than Wii Music did and you already can't expect Wii Music to compete with them..

First of all Wii music is far from a failure.

Second of all comparing with Rockband and Guita hero is as absurd as comparing Mario Galaxy with Gears of wars: GH and RB are Rythm games, wii music is a MUSIC game. get it?

third of all, the intentiuon was to create a new path in gaming where people could learn something via a game and use it more as a tool.

Fourth of all, if you really think that Miyamoto losted his vision because he made a game you don't like and that they need to release Wii sports 2 ASAP and that the wii is a fad old boring thread...then miyamoto is not the one losing his vision.

If you read my sig I'm predicted Wii Music will sell over 2m. Possibly as much as 5m ww ltd which is a success for most any game. But it's still going to be seen as a failure compared to Wii Play/Fit and GH/RB which will outperform it.

The point is it has missed the mark Nintendo set for it. Now that may be premature, but in Japan, it's sales are dropping quite fast. I'm sure it'll level out and sell consistantly for a long time but not comparable to the giant that is Wii Fit. More like Mario Super Sluggers.

Wii Sports and Wii Fit are now old news. Nintendo knows more than anyone you have to keep grasping people imagination to keep interest up. Early results show Wii Music is failing to do that.

Maybe there is a difference to you between those games.

But for the casual gamer that doesn't research their game a lot and wants to buy a game to play music with friends ?

That guy will pick GH:WT or RB2 over Wii Music, never mind the fact they are rythm games instead of music games..

You are making a distinction that isn't clear for 90% of the users...

 Where did I say that?  I didn't. 

The Wii is NOT a FAD.
Wii Music is NOT a FAILURE.

If you go into Wii Music thinking that you will have easy, memorize the guitar strokes gameplay -- like the rhythm games -- then you will be disappointed. The game is about experimentation and discipline. It is easy to start -- accessible -- but not to complete.

I doubt that Miyamoto will get the corner office treatment for this game.

Mike from Morgantown