Wii Music - It seems I was the only one to correctly predict this title would not succeed commercially in the way Sports/Play/Fit & Kart have (although Malstrom alluded to it in his blog).
But why has it failed to do so?
Simply put - Miyamoto lost track of his own vision.
Originally when the Wii was concept only, Miyamoto set out 3 oppurtunties for games that would appeal to a mass audience, not just a gaming audience. Those were: Sports, fitness and of course, music.
The idea was to make these games ACCESSIBLE to ALL people in a non-threatening way (not complex or hard to learn) so that anyone and everyone would want to play.
Wii's success is directly attributable to Wii Sports. Wii Sports was a realization of the dream.
Not everyone cares about fitness, but most people do to some degree, including a massive market not currently buying games. Wii Fit was not only a success in it's own right, it's a massive system seller to an all new market.
But then we have Wii Music. There are two fundimental problems for Wii Music. One - It's been done better. If Wii Music was a launch title it'd have fared MUCH better. But now we have GHIII, Rockband, GHWT, RB2, Samba de Amigo, etc., etc., which all bring music to the masses. At this point Wii Music, while different, is seen as yet another music game in a crowded field.
Worse though is this: It's NOT accessible to everyone. Miyamoto is a musician. He plays guitar. PLAYS being the opperative word. He plays on his for his own amusement, no one elses. He made a game that likewise - you PLAY with music. Unlike GH or RB where you only pretend to play with music. But those games are more fun - why? Because you can't do the song wrong. What?? That's backward to what everyone is saying? Check it - In those games all you do is follow a set pattern of button presses which HAVE NO AFFECT on the music. If you screw up enough the song stops, you try again. But the song is always good. You always feel like you're playing the song for real.
In Wii Music the song won't stop no matter how badly you mutilate it. In Wii Music what you do ACTUALLY affects the sound of the song. That is a mistake. Why? Because that's what makes it non-accessible. Most people CANNOT actually play music worth a damn. We suck. If we didn't we'd all have guitars to play already. Worse, you're forced to listen as you (and friends) totally kill the song you're trying to play. That's not fun.
Now people with a musical apptitute will love Wii Music. It'll be successful as a niche title, but that wasn't the idea.
Worse, Nintendo played this title as their main holiday release. Of course there's Animal Crossing which will do it's usual amazing self but it's old, will mostly appeal to people who already played it before and won't expand the market much. That's a problem. In targetting the casual market Nintendo created a problem. As they have mentioned many times - You have to keep giving them new experiences or they get bored. With Wii Music a comparitive failure (commercially) Nintendo is offering nothing new to keep casual players from being bored. And hasn't for far too long. Not since Mario Kart Wii.
Now Wii will still sell like crazy this holiday season, but it's running on the momentum of old titles only right now. That may not last. Nintendo needs to get Wii Sports Resort out sooner rather than later to keep it going before it starts to slow down. Especially in Japan where nothing has been selling on Wii except Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, Wii Sports and Wii Play. Once you lose momentum it's very difficult to regain. Especially when MS & Sony will be quick to pounce on any perceived weakness and label Wii as a FAD. If sells slow and it's suddenly overly available (post Christmas) people may see shelves overflowing with Wiis and although they are selling stongly the perception that the fad is over will seem real. No one wants to get in at the end of a fad. It won't be reality but with proper marketing from Sony/MS it could become reality.
Exploring a blue ocean market is risky as it's unexplored. Nintendo made their first misstep. Wii Sports Resort and Play on Wii will help but if Wii Sports Resort fails to grasps peoples imagination as Wii Sports once did then we could be seeing the beginning of the end for Wii's dominance.
Note: Lightly edited for clarity and my own overdramatization
