^You mean those initial estimates are made during extremely pessimistic times?

Either way, it's nice to see Nintendo less than 3 mill. away from the combined totals of their competitors.

 No, those predictions were made during one of the more optimistic times. Generally, people have been predicting 46-47% Market share for Wii by the end of the year. People were expecting Ps360 to sell more than Wii during holidays. I believe that it was first in October that people started predicting 48-49%. And now in November/December, people might  start to predict 49-50%.

Just in March, people who predicted 50% Wii by the end of the year were considered fools, and the popular opinion was closer to 45-47%.

So, no. My estimates were made during optimistic times for Ps3, whereas it is now coming into a more realistic time for predictions.

I wonder how many more weeks during this year could the Wii outsell its competitors combined.

Having checked the figures, it seemed it had less than 50% market share during the 2007 holidays.

Let's have a short look at last years holiday numbers then :).

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 03rd Nov 2007 to 05th Jan 2008:

That's last years november and december sales. Wii sold 47.5% of all 7th gen consoles during that time.

If we look at the last 5 weeks (those that I have been tracking so far in this thread:

You can see that PS360 sales are up 10% compared to last year, while Wii Sales are so far up 50% compared to last year, giving it a total of 54% of the total sales in this period. We'll see how it goes over the holiday. It will be really interesting to see if Wii can continue to outsell the PS360 or if the demand is simply not enough to make that happen.

If the trends hold, and Wii in total will be up by 50% while PS360 will be up by 10%, we would have the following numbers for November/december:

Wii: 9.6 million
PS360: 7.7 Million

Giving Wii a total of 55% of the total sales during November/December.

Then again, this is an analysis and not a prediction. There are far more variables affecting the analysis than I have brought up here, and it's more a sort of guideline to how one can think about it than anything else.

And the new week is up, the one ending the 29th of november!

Hooooray!

I like this thread. It's so quiet in here :)

And now. To business. This weeks numbers showed nintendo closing the gap by around 160k units weekly, and 128k units with adjustments. This time, the 360 got the major part of the adjustments, and it's going up up up.

If wii continues along the lines of this week it will reach 50% in between 18 and 22 weeks.

I still say Wii will be able to do it this holiday season, I believe 360 and PS3 peaked this week and Wii will expand its sales gap in December

The numbers for the week ending the 6th of december is up.

For this week, at least, you are right Avinash_Tyagi.

The sales gap is increasing, Wii sold 180k more than PS360 combined this week, closing the gap between the totals to just above 2,500,000

We'll see if it can be done this year, but I sincerely doubt that.

I think it might do it by February. Just a feeling.

Nintendo upped Wii production for November and December, plus they can air ship January stock FTW!

This week saw the biggest weekly shrinking of the gap between the consoles since I started measuring, and probably the biggest ever (it's impossible to check...)

The Wii shrank the gap by a mindblowing 700,000 units, and gained a total of .449%.

The estimate for when the Wii will pass 50% went down to a minute 7 weeks.

The gap shrank to less than 2 million.

In part, these numbers stem from the adjustment made because of the insane report from NPD, which said 2 million Wii's were sold in the US in november, and the Wii adjustments are therefore almost only americas adjustments.

All reported weeks so far has seen the Wii sell more than PS3 and 360 combined.