Iwata has stressed the importance of retail, so I don't see the download-only thing happening any time soon.

Bluray-like discs is a possibility. What about catridges, though? Would that be a viable format in 5 years? I have no idea, since I don't exactly keep up with technology, but I think that'd be awesome .

The Gamecube's disc format was a variation on a failed DVD specification that was produced by Panasonic ... It is quite possible that Nintendo could create a variation of HD-DVD or Blu-Ray in order to get the high capacity of those formats and the security of a proprietary format.

Whether the system would play movies of either format is a much different question ... Nintendo would have to see the added value (in terms of increased sales) in order to justify the licencing cost of adding the format; the primary reason why the Wii didn't include DVD playback was that practically everyone who cares about DVD playback already own a DVD player so there really was no added value for Nintendo to pay the licencing costs.

I really want the next Wii to use high capacity memory cards. Maybe in 4 more years a 50GB card would be cheap enough.

So, no loading times and less moving parts on the console =p

Slim not going to happen imo.

This would be ideal.

Keep the exact same DVD player currently in Wii for BS and then add a SD and another slot for Wii2 games. It could be almost a very similar form factor as Wii is now given that PS360 hardware levels should be far enough along to make into a very small container.

the external drive could easily be sold for 40$ then.

The advantage of the cartidge based system would be:

• faster possible accessing and copying the data
• smaller possible form factor of the game boxes (less shipping and transport costs)
• smaller possible form factor of the console (increased portability if needed, and japanese dig small-format electronics)
• if the game is small you could put it on 2GB cartidge which would probably be cheaper to manufacture, and therefore you could sell your game at the lower price (EDIT: if the game is large and of the high production values, you could put it on a 128 GB card if they become viable by then)
  
• lower energy consumption opposed to movable media ("greener" console)
• you could transfer data to cartidge (if you want to base your game around user input)
• optical discs are more prone to physical damage

The main disadvantage would obviously be costs of developement of a pirating-secure cart and reader. The other disadvantage could also be that nintendo would hold a monopoly on the cartidge manufacture.

I like how the wikipedia article states in regards to the format: "It was chosen by Nintendo to prevent copyright infringement of its games". I guess that didn't go so well. The avoiding DVD licensing fees makes much more sense.

Zero. I expect them to go back to either carts, or these new optical crystal devices. Lots of advantages.

Is that the Hologram thing?

Carts so like in SSD?

nintendo doesnt they develop their own to not pay.