from having 50% of the gaming market.

At the rate its selling(250 plus this weeK) when do you think the Wii will cross that magic 50 percent?

or will it?

It may, but not this year. It will outsell the SNES next year.

you have to realize that it is about 3.7m over what the PS3 + 360 sales weekly. That wont be an instant thing even for the Wii during the holidays.

Subtle plug for my own thread here - I've been keeping tabs each month on the gap between the cumulative sales of the PS360 and the Wii. And the Wii's market share as well. as soon as we get the Japanese sales for the 25th, that'll be the last full week of October and i shall update it.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=44254

It's nigh mathematically impossible to outsell all of its competition combined this year. I'm think about early next year.

It will probably happen sometime next year, not sure exactly when though.

at its current pace you are looking at 28 weeks. The pace should quicken over the next couple weeks, then slow down through January, then speed back up.

Over the long run, I think these changes in rates shouldn't effect the end results to badly, but I don't expect to average at this rate, so I think the Wii will pass both combined in July 09.

I don't think it will happen. It'll be close but the PS3 and Xbox 360 will be able to sell enough that they won't fall that far behind. I don't think Nintendo could do it this holiday season and I expect sales to obviously slow quite a bit for all three consoles and Nintendo won't increase the percentage it has over the HD consoles. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage between them narrows slightly.

And I think the PS3 wil become cheaper as Sony will have to lower the price to keep up with and try to catch the 360. I think at the end of this generation, the Wii will have about 45% of the console market with PS3 at 30% and 360 at 25%.
EDIT- The figure of 4 million isn't correct either. It doesn't account for any sales of PS3 or Xbox 360. If somehow those two systems didn't sell at all from this point forward and the Wii added another four million, they would be at 50%. However, since the two systems will of course sell more consoles, the Wii would have to sell well over that amount.

In November and December the Wii should be able to outsell the XBox 360 and PS3 combined by a large margin (1 to 2 Million units) but will fall short of breaking the 50% barrier. If the Wii follows the same sales pattern we have seen in the past, January through March the Wii should have a massive advantage over the XBox 360 and PS3 as sales drop off after the holiday season; the Wii may or may not pass the 50% barrier by March 31st 2009 but it will be close.

Fixed!