If Nintendo does not beat guidance, how much will the stock fall? I know they will probably beat guidance, and I am not saying they will not, but with a trailing P/E of 40, and a leading P/E of 20, it seems that future earnings are priced in and anything less than stellar results will lead to a sharp drop. Note I expect them to beat guidance. This is just a hypothetical question.

The way I look at is, if the Nintendo's price fall...buy more!! For a good company that is making a lot of money, worse comes worst you just keep taking on the big cash dividend. I did that with Mcdonald's, bought at 25 per share two years ago and they give me 1 dollar per share cash dividend(according to Yahoo Finance it is $1.5 per share this year)!! Mcdonald's share did went up to 50 this year but my point is that even if it did not went up, I enjoy it puts money into my checking account.

The funny thing is that I did not even know it give cash dividend becasue I was so focus on its share price's up and down(who cares about stock dividends?). Until one day I just find it very strange that I always have enough money to pay for my mortgage even though I did not put any money in it. So I did the investigation and found out that Mcdonald's has been contributing to my mortgage payments for a year!

For a company that is making a lot of money, if its share price is low, than its cash dividend will seem large compared with its share price. If its price goes up very high and makes its cash dividend look small...oh well....even better!

BTW, I am bothered however, that Nintendo did not have a Wii Sports II out soon. I am getting unbeatable in Wii tennis now. Maybe I should write something to Nintendo as a shareholder.

I wish I could buy more Nintendo. I've got some weird block on buying it and when I phoned Etrade Canada, I was told Reuters had put a stop on it...some kind of investigation. I don't what they're investigating, but it's stopped me from buying more Nintendo for months now. :P

But on the bright side, I can still watch my existing shares climb and climb.

When do you all think the analysts will have totally caught on? The end of this year? Next year?

Reuters is a news agency. They are not a regulatory agency. Only the Canadian equvalent to the SEC (not sure what it's called) could put a stop to trading. And they would investigate anything themselves and not rely on any news agency for information.

Hmm, perhaps Reuters was reporting the stop action.  Also, perhaps it's time to call them again!  Thanks for the info.

McDonalds is a great brand and a good stock. I had a drip that bought shares with the dividend that did very well for years.
The reason I asked about what you think the stock would do if Nintendo misses guidance or even just met guidance, is the stock is up 160% in a year and is now attracting a lot investors who do not seem to understand they are buying future earnings, not current earnings. I don't think they understand that if Nintendo misses, look out below!
I hold (what may be the rare opinion) that if they had not beat guidance the stock would already have dropped. Ergo they beat guidance. Also they ought to sell a ton of DDR, Wiifit, and IP games this holiday season, so no worries until February.

Holy crap, we just busted through to 65,300 (+4.15%). Some big boys must be buying. Heavy volume. I think we are going to get blowout numbers on the 25th.

Almost all TSE buys of 7974 are big boys. You need $50k just to make one trade of Nintendo on the TSE.

I don't see a ton of volume, but someone bought 10,000 shares for 65,500 right before 11:00am. That's what pushed the price up.

If Nintendo misses guidance, we're going to see a 30%+ haircut. I think they'll beat guidance, but I don't think Nintendo will raise their projections in the near future.

You shouldn't look at the TSE for volume. Most of the trading occurs on the Osaka exchange. 780k shares at the break is pretty high.

http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=7974.OS

I don't see any way Nintendo misses estimates based on all the sales data we've seen. The only thing that could wreck it is if the dollar and euro get demolished, which is looking pretty unlikely in the short term.  

Thanks Fish... I always looked at the TSE. Guess I gotta change that habit.