That's what makes this Xmas so important for Sony. If it can't do well, then the argument that it's "the games" goes out the window. And if PS3 doesn't do well this Christmas, there is a much better chance that titles such as MGS4, FF13 "and many other big titles" will no longer be exclusive to that console.

 As for numbers next year, Nintendo has been selling (roughly) 1 million consoles per month, and that's with a shortage. Expecting roughly 15 million more console sales by next November, bringing the total 23 million, is not unreasonable. And that's just assuming sales stay constant, with no boost for games, holidays, production increases or price cuts.

With Sony, they've sold an average of 440,000 per month (roughly) until now. Figure the price cut will have a proprtional impact on future sales (15% drop, 15% sales increase), maybe we're looking at 515,000 per month. If we're generous, we can raise it to 600,000 a month between now and next November, which would add 9m to bring the total to roughly 12-13m by November 2008. And that's assuming more than a 35% increase in sales month-to-month (if sales rates were to stay as they are now, it would barely be at 10mil). Ironically this would put it just about where the 360 will be when it hits this holiday season.

As for the 360, going back to the beginning we're looking at an average of 550,000 consoles per month, which, if held constant, would get it to 20 million by November 2008, and that's not factoring in Halo 3 and a very likely price cut this autumn.

If I were to guess, tossing in extra holiday sales and price cut impacts, I'd say the PS3 will be at 13-15 million, 360 at 24-25 million, and the Wii at 27-28 million. This is putting the PS3 at a disadvantage comparable to the the N64 vs the PSX. That's going to make it much harder to convince 3rd parties to keep their exclusives on the Sony console, and gamers will still likely be looking at a $350-400 price tag compared for XMas '08 as compared to maybe $250 for the Premium 360 and $150 for the Wii.

I don't care what sort of games Sony has out next year. That's a HUGE obstacle to overcome.

I'm sure product innovation and appeal to untapped consumer demographics had nothing to do with Nintendo's success at all. Few if any complained about graphics with the sub-par PS2 last gen and seemed content to having good games, why graphics matter now is solely because the PS3 has them, not because it needs them or that they benefit the games in the long run. It's an argument always made after the fact.

You just gave yourself away Leroy... or Gbal... "after the fact"...

Maybe I'm just being paranoid - if so I apologize, but Gbal could never get enough of that phrase.

I'm not claiming that the Wii will win by 100 million consoles or anything, I just don't see any realistic chance for a turnaround from the other 2 companies at this point.  You're right that there has never been a price difference this large, but I don't see how that can work to anyone's advantage but Nintendo's.  Of course that's just my opinion, but I think it's kind of ridiculous to claim that the THIRD Holiday season is the most important in the generation.

 Average development time on the PS3 is 2-3 years.  If they forced out anything, it would be a pile of crap.  You should know by now that forcing games does nothing but destroy the game quality.

 Besides, you say this like Sony has a choice in this matter, as if, right now, they could say "WAIT!  Instead of pushing that game out next summer (12 months), let's have it ready for Christmas! (4 months)"  It doesn't work like that.

To me, this sounds like a:

"The Next Generation of gaming starts when we say so."

statement...

"Christmas is only important when we have OUR games."

Exactly, and in all honesty I'm sure MS and Nintendo would have made similar statements had they been in similar situations this upcomming holiday season.

 Doesn't make the statement any less ignorant.

 It's actually the fourth holiday season. 08 will be number four for the 360. 

And people always come up with reasons why each generation is different and unique, and why THIS time, the underdog will come back and win. There actually have been larger price differences before:

Neo Geo and Super Nintendo/Genesis
N64/PS1 and 3D0

These systems did so poorly that no one even considers them part of the race -- which only further emphasizes that comebacks like this aren't likely. I actually still remember my friend telling me the the same things about the Neo Geo that people say now about the PS3: when it comes down in price, things will change. And guess what? Developer support slowly evaporated, and things never changed, even once the Neo Geo was 300. There absolutely is precedent for the PS3.

Everyone can always come up with reasons why this time will be different; every time, they've been wrong. Is it possible that this time really is different? Sure, there's a first time for everything, but it would be historically unprecedented. "Historically unprecedented" doesn't meant impossible, it just means very unlikely. 

I agree with this completely.

If nothing else, this Xmas sets up what happens early next year - and leads into next Xmas.

We all know MS have pushed back LOTS of titles for next year. Plenty to keep the hard-core happy anyway. Not so sure about Nintendo, but its sort of irrelevant at this point (may be selling hardware until July '08, just to catch up with Xmas demand).

The only reason I think Sony would be saying "this Xmas isn't important" - is if they know they will come last (at least in NA - and probably Europe), and just want to dampen the criticism when it hits.