David Reeves: This Christmas Not That Critical

[Bodhesatva]

naznatips said:

ckmlb said:

naznatips said:

MontanaHatchet said:

Er... the console that was going to be the long term winner was determined about 3 months ago, when it was apparent that the Wii hype wasn't just going to disappear. The console with the strongest launch months always wins, but hey, hope is good right, so keep on dreaming.

Has there ever been as much of a price difference as there is now between 2 mainstream consoles? I think the console race is far from over and is still in its beginning.

I'm not claiming that the Wii will win by 100 million consoles or anything, I just don't see any realistic chance for a turnaround from the other 2 companies at this point. You're right that there has never been a price difference this large, but I don't see how that can work to anyone's advantage but Nintendo's. Of course that's just my opinion, but I think it's kind of ridiculous to claim that the THIRD Holiday season is the most important in the generation.

 It's actually the fourth holiday season. 08 will be number four for the 360. 

And people always come up with reasons why each generation is different and unique, and why THIS time, the underdog will come back and win. There actually have been larger price differences before:

Neo Geo and Super Nintendo/Genesis
N64/PS1 and 3D0

These systems did so poorly that no one even considers them part of the race -- which only further emphasizes that comebacks like this aren't likely. I actually still remember my friend telling me the the same things about the Neo Geo that people say now about the PS3: when it comes down in price, things will change. And guess what? Developer support slowly evaporated, and things never changed, even once the Neo Geo was 300. There absolutely is precedent for the PS3.

Everyone can always come up with reasons why this time will be different; every time, they've been wrong. Is it possible that this time really is different? Sure, there's a first time for everything, but it would be historically unprecedented. "Historically unprecedented" doesn't meant impossible, it just means very unlikely.