Has there ever been as much of a price difference as there is now between 2 mainstream consoles? I think the console race is far from over and is still in its beginning. 

+2 for ckmlb:

- making predictions using actual sales rate when u obvioulsy know that the contexte will be different in 5 month and even more in 1 year, is crappy.
- referring, again and again, to past console war is just useless.
You will always found parameters that are the same between 2 generation and others that are not the same.

While everything is still indeed in its early stages Ckmlb, most people without reason to be optimist for the powerhouse philosophies of the 360 and PS3 really have no idea why people keep assuming the Wii's sales are ever going to drop off to the point of giving away the lead or severly compromising its momentum. I honestly can't predict how well the 360 or PS3 will do, but I certainly don't see the Wii slowing down anytime soon. With all do respect, people have been crying "it won't last" on the Wii ever since the started, they've just been finding more appropriate ways of saying it as its staying power out lasts predictions.

- Before Release: Wii is a gimmick, it won't sell.

- After December: Wii is a fad, it won't last.

- After March: Wii's hype can't last forever, give it time, people will get tired.

- After June: Wii can't keep selling out forever, they'll meet demand eventually.

Maybe we will see its sales drop eventually, you may very well be right. But I can't imagine there being a reason for such anytime soon, especially not these upcomming holidays anyway.

It has already been decided that the wii will sell the most this generation, due to their low price and easy to delvelop for system. The PS3 and 360 just have to sell a decent amount of systems to keep respect for their brands and they are doing that by making games that have stunning graphics and give a realife and fun feel to this generation.

Nintendo must be swimming in cash with the cheap cost of making games for the wii and DS and the crazy amounts they sell. Look at the DS for example, most of their games can be made for under 1million dollars and take less then one month to make.  lets just hope that next gen Nintendo are able to push the graphics of games like the 360/PS3 did this gen.

oh clearly making predictions based on current performance of consoles and the previous generations of consoles is completely ridiculous. Tell us, o wise sage libellule, how shall we make our predictions?

I shall have a goat slaughtered for entrail examining immediately.

I never made that assumption.  Of course both are probably wrong. In general the second year of a console's life ends up with many more sales than the first, unless the console is a complete failure.

So I expect both the PS3 and Wii sales to be much higher next year. Wiis by a much larger margin (since they're currently lmited by production which I don't expect next year)

However, I did not want to bring my own bias into the matter so instead of guessing future trends I based my numbers on current sales data. The point I was trying to make is that by Christmas next year if Sony don't pick up their game, they'll be finished.

I read this a few days ago, and didn't see the point in posting it. I think he is "sort of" right - but he just said what he said badly.

There is no reason why any Xmas should be more/less important than any other really.

... 

My only comment is this:

This Xmas is now pretty much decided. Its not that Sony won't have a good Xmas - its that Ninty & MS should have excellent Xmas's. So there isn't much to battle over for the coming holiday period - the market will be so saturated, that its irrelevant.

The battle will be fought out by the price point of the PS3/360 - and the manufacturing level of the Wii.

...

So in a way, the focus has already shifted to next Xmas - and jostling for position before it starts. The PS3 will be much more established by then, and it will either be "very competitive", or "dead in the water".

I don't think there will be much middleground by Xmas '08.

(at the least, there will be a heated battle between MS & Sony for '08. Who knows what Ninty will be doing).

My admirer. Can't tell the difference between thinking Amazon is irrelevant and hating Sony.

That's ok. You can think I'm a fanboy if you wish (and I'm curious who you think I'm a fanboy of).

On topic: In one way, I'd say Reeves is wrong, and each Christmas is just as critical. But, in another way, I'd say he is right. Sony's big guns are all 08 at the moment. Killzone 2, MGS4, possibly FFXIII ... if 08 isn't a spectacular year for Sony, it is time to break out the violins.

If sony really thought that this holiday was so critical, they would have forced out alot more games. They have enough games to hold their own this holiday season, ofcourse they will probably still end up in third place in terms of sales. But they have the strongest software lineup of 2008, with many well known system sellers on the way. Saying that a holiday season is going to break or make a console is foolish, it's like saying a system's launch is the most important thing to look at. Now if Sony loses a long string of holidays, that's a different story. But i can tell you guys that no one at Sony is going to sh!t a brick if they get in third place this holiday, if anything thats what they expect.

This is actually quite odd because I hadn't seen this thread before and was considering starting a thread as to why this Christmas was going to be the most critical for the success of the PS3 ...

At the moment there are quite a few major third party publishers who are not particularly happy with the sales performance of the PS3 and of their software on the PS3; many of these publishers previously favoured the Playstation and PS2 and were critical in the establishment of these platforms. At the moment, few of these developers are canceling projects or shifting a lot of resources away from PS3 projects because they feel that they have invested too much and the PS3 still has the opportunity to do better.

This holiday season the PS3 and most of the software on it has to sell really well in order to avoid consequences ...

Hypothetically speaking, if the PS3 underperforms this holiday season some (many) of the big games that are going to be released in 2008 could be delayed and ported to the XBox 360 and games with release dates beyond that could simply be canceled. I don't know what the necessary numbers are for Konami or Square to port their games away from the PS3, but I know it is a possibility if the PS3 does not meet their expectations.