I am missing your point I think. So MS is planning on losing another $13 billion?
In 20 set top boxes may not even be the means of how people play games. With true ARD, (like Quake ARD) the direction Nintendo has been moving, and MS moving into Flat PCs, Tablets, Handhelds, etc. IN 20 years pc's, televisions, cellphones, media centers, pda's and video games will be nothing like what we are using now.
Look at the new PSP's video out. Consoles will probably start shrinking and becoming more like portables way before 2027. My Cable box has more built in functionality for HD movies on demand, DVR and HD music than my 360 or PS3. And it's included with my standard Digital Cable. 360 and PS3 will not be the home media center, and neither will their successors.
My DVD player has an SD slot for for music, movies, and picture. The 360 does not, how is that a media center when I can't send it an email or use a standardized form of memory. I have to use MS authorized memory, which is way too small. Even the Wii has an SD, and Nintendo is notorious for using proprietary formats.
iphone has catapulted the intergration of PC, PDA, Music and Movie player and Cellphone more than most people thought was possible by now.
Console gaming will merge with handheld gaming. Japanese publishers are already recognizing this, moving major franchises to PSP and DS. Sony knows it. MS even is moving in this direction and I would be surprised if a few Zunes from now (another blunder) don't have Xbox functionality.
But PS3 and 360 both need to get up sales as game machines. MS may very well discontinue Xbox, because it will never be the home media center.
I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.