@ Veggie )

but Wii Fit was heavily supply contrained because of it's additional hardware, while (afaik) Wii Music doesn't come with new hardware

it's not even a f'n game... so who knows how it's going to do

and the award for best responce goes to......TABSINA!!

Good.  I sense your angry.  A great forum poster you will be.

Based on the success of the past Wii Series titles, it isn't unreasonable to think this game may follow a similar path. I can't say for sure, of course, exactly how well it will do, but I expect a million at the very least from Japan. The game "flopping" in Japan would mean something like SMG sales.

@Kyros: I actually plan on getting this game. It's unique and offers something no games I've seen do, and doesn't cost a ton (Rock Band, Guitar Hero) to enjoy to the fullest. I still have a PS2 Guitar Hero controller from when it came out, so I feel kinda jipped there.

Okay that proves my point even better. Even with 250k sales and supply constraints, it's sold 2.7 million so far.

WiiFit Soldout at launch in Japan. And was soldout until like March. WiiMusic will sell less, but will still have high sales.

@ Veggie )

I'm not sure if it's still supply constraint, but the first weeks/month it was which is why it's sales were relatively "low" then but didn't drop as fast as usual.

What I tried to say is, that it's a bad example for we don't know how much initial demand for Wii Fit was there - would it have sold 2 million in the first week if there were enough units? no idea, but the demand clearly was much higher than just the 250k it sold first week

Wii Music on the other hand doesn't come with some kind of hardware which limits it's initial shippment, so they should be able to satify the initial demand - that doesn't have to mean it must have bad legs, but I think it makes it very likely we won't see the legs Wii Fit had.

Despite the fact I'm predicting Wii Music will not be anywhere's near as big as Wii Fit/Sports/Play I agree you can't tell anything from pre-sales for this game.

This is one people definitely need to play first to determine if they like it. Expect low but steady monthly sales. IF this game is a success it'll raise up week over week instead of selling great week one and then dropping like most games.

Regardless of any pre-order info, Wii Music will still sell 2 million copies in Japan - much to the hatred of anti-"non game" advocates.