I'd say...

Mario Party 8: 200k
Gundam: 150k
Hot Shots Golf 5: 120k
Elder Scrolls: 60k
Guilty Gear: 20k
Dewey's Adv: 40k

The biggest stories of the week won't be the games. It will be earnings. Both Sony and Nintendo should report for Q1 next week. We will find out who's making money and who's not. I know where I have my bets placed.

I think you are overestimating Oblivion and underestimating Gundam, but I agree iwth your HSG and MP8 numbers.  For Gundam I would say 85K and for Oblivion I would say 50K.

I picked it up yesterday (just launched in Australia), and will write a review/impressions of it at some point.

We had one game, and it was hugely entertaining (4 players, everyone loved it). It did find it a bit slow, and uninspired though. Hoping that is because we played the Jungle level (seems too regular). Too many of the mini-games are boring, and just not clever enough.

Last one I played was MP4 - and loved it (literally had years of fun out of it). So far I actually think MP4 is a superior game. 

I'll give it some time, then give a proper report...

It's not just Gundam, it's Gundam on Wii (see: Japan's Crack Cocaine, or DS could fit this).

The problem is it is competing With so many other games. I think the numbers may be a little lower across the board.

Mario Party 8: 180k
Gundam: 80k
Hot Shots Golf 5: 140k
Elder Scrolls: 40k
Guilty Gear: 15k
Dewey's Adv: 20k

With DQ:S around 75k for week 3.

I bet Guilty Gear does good. 100k first week.

Some information for those predicting/questioning MP8 and Oblivion:

Oblivion: Incase anyone didn't know, pre-orders for the game were announced, right at Trusty Bell's launch, to already exceed that of Trusty Bell. As we know, Trusty Bell did ~50k it's first week. I believe TES:IV can get somewhere between 53~75k. I'm on the higher end, but I believe that with the increase in X360 hardware since TB (which has been pretty good), that it's possible.

Mario Party 8: I think that everyone forgets the absolute succuess of WarioWare: Smooth Moves in Japan. It's a friggin' beast, yet no one mentions it. It's still in the top 50, and sold ~5k units last week with the DQS launch. ITS BEEN OUT FOR 33 WEEKS. WarioWare is to full-priced gamed as what Wii Sports/Play is to the reduced price spectrum of the Wii Market. It's the 2nd highest selling full-price game, and will easily overcome Zelda LTD at some point. This is very telling of Mario-Party 8, because WW:SM did very similar in the US: a decent start, and a great multiplier. We all know how MP8 has done in the states (almost 700k LTD vs. 500k for WWSM NA), so MP8 could do OK at 150k, but most likely, will have ungodly legs and keep selling till next year and hit 1m in Japan.

To be blunt; that is an ass-load of games to release in one week. Is there some holiday in Japan that week?

 @ johnsobas

Hmm I think it's not a bad idea to add also PSP's titles to this list... I think at least launch of GTA:LCS, MGS:PO Anniversary Edition and new MHF2 bundles will be pretty interesting.

Really, it's just a big week. It gets initiated by one or two titles, and explodes into dozens of titles in a huge ramp up.

A good example would be Trusty Bell's week. There were 8 new X360 games that became budget titles, a few PS3 games, tons of DS, and PS2 budget's and so on and so forth.

Look at it this way:

Sony announces HSG. Nintendo announces MP8 to counter HSG Week. Big week confirmed, as both systems will have much higher sales. 3rd parties get in the fray with Oblivion, Gundam, MLB, Dewy's, ect. Then the last tier of budget games come in because again, more hardware sold = higher chance of them picking up budget games.