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Forums - General - Dow index no longer over 9000;GM shares at 58-year low;WSJ:recession's here

akuma587 said:
Screw American car companies. Their terrible choices have earned them the right to fail.

Though something should go to the millions of workers the car comanies let down.

 



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Kasz216 said:
akuma587 said:
Screw American car companies. Their terrible choices have earned them the right to fail.

Though something should go to the millions of workers the car comanies let down.

 


What did the employees of all the failing banks get?

 



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stof said:
don't worry guys. There's nothing to fear. This is simple Keynesian economics. During the good times, the government uses taxes and reduced spending to build up surplus money that can then be used to inject in to the economy when things are rough.

And that's why the U.S. government has spent the last 8 years saving up money for just such an occasion... oh crap we're fucked.

 

  haha, it's funny because it's true.



 

akuma587 said:
Screw American car companies. Their terrible choices have earned them the right to fail.

Although I agree with you, the Government of the United States will never let them fail ...

Back in 2005 GM had 1.5 times as many pensioners as it had employees and GM doesn't have a fully funded pension plan so these people are paid out of revenues. This is one of the core problems GM (and all American automobile manufacturers) have had over the past several years because (for their manufacturing costs) their cars are excellent vehicles but the high unfunded liabilities increase the purchase price of the vehicle to a level where it can't be competitive.

The government will not let these companies fail because when they do their (roughly) 1.5 Million retired (and near retirement) employees will be without a pension ...



akuma587 said:
bigjon said:
akuma587 said:
bigjon said:
I would say if GM is healthy 6 months from now... INVEST in them. They seem to get it. The Volt will be huge, I like the direction they are heading. I do not see a depression coming. I see a major inflationary period ahead, tight credit, and higher job loss. No Depression the fundementals of the US economy are too strong, even Obama becoming president would not lead us to a depression.

I having been analyizing the economic leaders, and they seem good. Most of the doom in gloom you see politicalization of the crisis for gain. Yes, it is bad, but the politicians are making it seem worse than it is.

Seriously bigjon, wake up.  The economy is way beyond people "politicizing" it to be a crisis for gain.  And it looks like you copy and pasted some of what you said straight out of things McCain has said before (bolded parts).  Are we all just "a bunch of whiners" too?  In a "mental recession"?

Here is the YTD chart of the DOW.  You see that part at the end there?  That is the last month.  There is about a 3000 point drop in 1 MONTH.  You can't really spin that to be something minor.

 

I said people are FREAKED! The Markets are driven by 2 emotions, fear and greed. Right now fear is thriving. Buck up, it is not the end of the world, there will be no great depression 2. It might be a really bad recession, but there is a difference. Recessions are part of the Business cycle, Depressions are not. Right now the dow if free falling because people are selling stock just to get rid of it... these are the same dumasses who will hide it in their matresses. Like I said I am only worried about inflation. If you are worried about inflation diversify. Get some commodies to even out your portfolio. So if it is dooms day you will still have something.

Let me remind you, that the selloff we have seen the last 7 days or so (combined) is less than the 1 day selloff in 1987 (that was like 24%). The bleeding will stop, there as just ass loads of undervalued stock waiting to be swooped. I named GM as one of them, Bank of America is a steal right now, they purchased a crap load of bad debt from Merril (which someday they will actually profit off of) and they obviously are in trouble if they can go out and spend billions to buy Merril. they are getting dragged down with the entire finance industry, and they appear to be OK, same with CITIGroup.

This is being politicized, no one wants to come out and say that things aren't as bad as people are fearing... Obama knows it will help him, and McCain knows people are freaking out, and people will think he is a retarded old goon if he tries to act like it is not as bad as people have already percieved. Bush is just listening to his advisors, I think he is kinda lost right now.

 

I am not saying this is not a mess, I am saying that things will be OK. Just diversify, some companies will go under and you don't want all your eggs in 1 basket. We will get throw this, and the people who decided to put their money in the market when it bottoms out (could be another 25% down or so) are going to get flithy rich. And it won't be average joe investor... it will be the Warren Buffets who always seem to being far ahead of the curve.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122359593027021243.html

Stocks fell for the seventh straight trading day on Thursday, continuing what amounts to a slow-motion crash that has pulled the market down more than 20% over that brief period.

On its way down, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through another milestone, closing below 9000 for the first time since 2003, wiping out the bulk of the gains from the last bull market. The decline leaves America in one of its worst bear markets in decades, a slump that is triggering comparisons to long-running declines of the 1930s and 1970s.

Thursday's decline -- the 11th largest in percentage terms in the Dow's history -- put the stock market either in, or nearly in, a crash. A common definition of a crash is a 20% decline in a single day or several days. The Dow's crash in 1987 was 22.6% in one day. The 1929 crash was back-to-back declines of 12.8% and 11.7%.

Ok, my point was this crash is not any worse (so far) than the 1987 crash. We recovered from that just fine. We had a recession in 90-91, but we then made it to the 90's. The feds job is to minimalize the lows of the business cycle, they failed this time. It was be a bad recession, not a depression. If you look back at 1929 you will few similarities... the only common factor is market losses. (a in the 20's they did have isolated housing market crashes)

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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bigjon said:

Ok, my point was this crash is not any worse (so far) than the 1987 crash. We recovered from that just fine. We had a recession in 90-91, but we then made it to the 90's. The feds job is to minimalize the lows of the business cycle, they failed this time. It was be a bad recession, not a depression. If you look back at 1929 you will few similarities... the only common factor is market losses. (a in the 20's they did have isolated housing market crashes)

 

Recessions are a healthy portion of every ecconomy and without them investors don't incur the moral cost from taking on large foolish risks. Had the federal reserve not reduced interest rates to record lows to "minimize the lows" from the dot-com crash it is likely that we wouldn't have faced as large of a problem in the financial sector due to the collapse of the sub-prime lending market. It is the Federal Reserve's moronic secondary mandate to "minimize the lows of the business cycle" which has gotten us into the mess we're in today!



I knew this was coming, along with everyone else who listened to Dr. Ron Paul.

Nothing unexpected.



Today has not been any better...

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/10/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2008101011

Stocks plunge again

Dow down 350 points, after tumbling almost 700 points in the first minutes of trade.

NEW YORK  (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Friday morning in volatile trade - the Dow erased most of its nearly 700-point loss at the open, only to turn lower again as the credit crisis intensified.

Credit markets remained tight, although short-term lending showed some improvement from recent days. Treasury prices fell, raising the corresponding yields. The dollar gained versus the euro and the yen. Oil and gas fell. Gold prices rose.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 370 points or 4.4% around two hours into the session. Within the first five minutes of trade, the Dow had plunged 697 points, falling below 7900 to its lowest level since March 17, 2003.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index lost 4.9% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 3.9%. Both major gauges had tumbled along with the Dow at the open.

Markets tanked Thursday, extending the Dow's losses over the last seven sessions to 2,271 points, or 20%, as panicked investors ditched stocks across the board.

That panic spread to global markets Friday, with the Japanese Nikkei tumbling 9.6% and European markets falling in afternoon trading. The global selloff kept the pressure on U.S. markets Friday.

"Fear is feeding upon itself and nothing the officials have done to this point seems to stem the tide," said Ryan Atkinson, market analyst at Balestra Capital.

A key measure of investor fear hit an all-time high: The CBOE Volatility (VIX) index, or the VIX, hit nearly 71 Friday morning.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

bigjon said:
Lingyis said:
bigjon said:
I would say if GM is healthy 6 months from now... INVEST in them. They seem to get it. The Volt will be huge, I like the direction they are heading. I do not see a depression coming. I see a major inflationary period ahead, tight credit, and higher job loss. No Depression the fundementals of the US economy are too strong, even Obama becoming president would not lead us to a depression.

I having been analyizing the economic leaders, and they seem good. Most of the doom in gloom you see politicalization of the crisis for gain. Yes, it is bad, but the politicians are making it seem worse than it is.

 

wow, how much faster can one lose his credibility!

of course, you did say "if" GM is healthy 6 months from now. well, i can also say that if the economy is fine 6 months from now, you can pretty much invest in anything and make money.

you think politicians are making it seem worse? i actually think they're underestimated how bad it is. especially two weeks ago when they couldn't even pass that stupid bill.

 

When I said "healthy" I meant, not bankrupt. There stock should still fall from here, and like I said there future looks bright... They just need to survive this crisis. Yea losing my cred.... right. And what do you know about Economics and Finance to say that? (you might be Bernake, so i am just checking) Akuma studies law and is very intelligent, I think Fishyjoes is in Finance (Am I wrong?) Again by healthy I did not mean that they are turning exxon like profits... I just meant that there heads are above water and are continueing to show signs of improving.

The Volt? I thought I read 2010 for that? Maybe a wide release is 3 years away. And it is not just the Volt. They are showing signs that they just "get" it.

Shit, economic leaders. Well, one for example is I heard today that IBM is going to meet their earnings targets. Many retailers are doing fine. This could change as many of the businesses I mentioned will not be hit by the tight credit right away, and as hard.

Remember, Many companies do use a line of credit to pay salaries and such, but many use cash assets. Nintendo is a good example. What do they have a 8 billion dollar chest of money now? They had like 6 billion during the dark years of the GC.

 

Well, it is good news for IBM. But, retail? Retail spending is going down, especially in large retailers like department stores. Listen to this radio report: http://odeo.com/episodes/23465558-Retail-Spending-Down

So, retail IS going down and it IS an important leader. Now, lets look at what exactly is going on:

1) Dow tanking cause everyone is scared. You know, people were scared in 1929, that is why there was a sell off. When the marfket looks bad, fear s the number one sell off. Just because it is fear and panic that is driving this does not change the fact it is happeneing.

2) Credit crunch. Do you have any data showing most companies have large cash reserves? I remember people being suprised about how nintendo does because it is not normal in the industry. Most companies put money in investment and operations. Most DO NOT have large reserves. As they run out of cash they will have to close down. Why do you think GM is going to have to close some of its plants soon, even with good news from the volt? This will accelerte if nothing happenes to alleviate the credit cunch. Again, this is fear, which is the number 1 cause for market meltdown.

So how is this good news and how is this the same as 1987? Every economist I have heard says this is significantly worse than 1987. Are you disagreeing with them? I agree that investing now is a good idea in 401k, it is always good when employers match. But, the question is: how does this get fixed.



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NJ5 said:
Kasz216 said:
akuma587 said:
Screw American car companies. Their terrible choices have earned them the right to fail.

Though something should go to the millions of workers the car comanies let down.

 


What did the employees of all the failing banks get?

 

Not enough.

That's the problem. The banks should of been allowed to fail, and the non management personel who didn't make these dumbass decisions should of been taken care of.


When your friend gambles away all there money you have three choices.

1) Give them money.

2) Cut them off

3) Take care of their families bills since it's not their fault their provider is an idiot.

Me I support the 3rd road.

It's bullshit that stuff can be promised to you down the line completely, then it be taken away cause that money got gambled with.  It's a breach of contract.